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March 2026
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Engineering exports achieved its all-time high growth for the second straight fiscal year in 2025-26

Engineering exports from India turned out quite impressive in the month of July 2025 with shipments crossing USD 10 billion for the first time in fiscal 2025-26 and recorded higest year-on-year growth on a monthly basis in the current fiscal so far.
Indian engineering exports in July 2025 stood at USD 10.43 billion as against USD 9.16 billion in July 2024, securing 13.81 percent growth, the highest in this fiscal so far.
On a cumulative basis, engineering exports recorded 6.1 percent year-on-year growth as it went up to USD 39.34 billion in Apr –Jul 2025-26 from USD 37.08 billion during the same period last fiscal.
The share of engineering in total merchandise exports, according to the Quick Estimates of Department of Commerce, Government of India, rose sharply to 28 percent in July 2025 from 26.4 percent in July 2024.
On a cumulative basis also the share of engineering in total merchandise exports went up to 26.4 percent during Apr-Jul 2025-26 from 25.6 percent during the same period last fiscal.
In July 2025, 29 out of 34 engineering panels witnessed positive year-on-year growth. While 5 engineering panels including mainly Aircrafts and Spacecrafts, Ship and Boats, Zinc and its products, etc. witnessed decline in exports during July 2025 vis-à-vis July 2024.
On a cumulative basis, 28 out of 34 engineering panels recorded positive growth and remaining 6 engineering panels including Non-ferrous sectors including Aluminium products, Zinc products and Nickel, Aircraft and Spacecrafts, ships, boats and floating products, etc. recorded negative growth during April-July 2025-26.
Region wise, North America maintained its spot as the number one export destination with a share of 22% followed by EU (18%) and WANA (14%) in Apr-July 2025.
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March-2026 engineering exports hit peak growth for fiscal 2025-2026

Engineering exports from India turned out quite impressive in the month of July 2025 with shipments crossing USD 10 billion for the first time in fiscal 2025-26 and recorded highest year-on-year growth on a monthly basis in the current fiscal so far. Indian engineering exports in July 2025 stood at USD 10.43 billion as against USD 9.16 billion in July 2024, securing 13.81 percent growth. On a cumulative basis, engineering exports recorded 6.1 percent year-on-year growth as it went up to USD 39.34 billion in Apr –Jul 2025-26 from USD 37.08 billion during the same period last fiscal. The share of engineering in total merchandise exports rose sharply to 28 percent in July 2025 from 26.4 percent in July 2024 and also went up on a cumulative basis to 26.4 percent during Apr-Jul 2025-26 from 25.6 percent during the same period last fiscal. The growth run of engineering exports in this fiscal was attributed to good performances of product segments namely Electric machinery and equipment, Motor vehicles/Cars, Products of Iron and steel, and Industrial machinery among others while Aircrafts and spacecraft was the biggest spoilsport. North America remained the top export destination followed by the European Union, both showing healthy growth in this fiscal till date. Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa stood out with impressive double-digit growth while Northeast Asia also performed well with a double digit growth. CIS, WANA and Other Europe were the damagers with negative cumulative export growth. However, within CIS, engineering exports to Russia witnessed excellent growth during July 2025. Among the top destination countries, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Singapore conceded decline in engineering exports from India during this fiscal.

Trade Flow Export figures(in $ billion) Growth (%)
Jul-2025 Jul-2026 Apr-Jul 2024-25 Apr-Jul 2025-26 Jul-2026 over Jul-2025 Apr-Jul 2024-25 over Apr-Jul 2025-26
Engineering exports 10.82 10.94 116.75 122.43 1.13% 4.86%
Overall merchandise exports 42.05 38.92 437.70 441.78 -7.44% 0.93%
Share of engineering (%) 25.73% 28.11% 26.67% 27.71% --- ---
Service Exports 35.63 35.20 387.55 418.31 -1.21% 7.94%

Source : Compiled from data by DGCI&S and Quick Estimates published by the Government of India.

Engineering Exports: Monthly Trend

The monthly engineering export figures for 2025-26 vis-à-vis 2024-25 are shown below as per the latest DGCI&S estimates:

Table 1: Engineering Exports: Monthly Trend in 2025-26

US$ million

Month 2024-25 2025-26 Growth (%)
April 8557.11 9513.72 11.18
May 9974.13 9889.09 -0.85
June 9386.21 9506.66 1.28
April-June 27917.46 28909.47 3.55
July 9162.17 10433.12 13.87
August 9437.14 9900.7 4.91
September 9826.24 10113.15 2.92
July-September 28425.55 30446.97 7.11
October 11253.08 9372.67 -16.71
November 8897.84 11012.20 23.76
December 10843.35 10981.94 1.28
October-December 30994.27 31369.25 1.21
January 9424.17 10401.80 10.37
February 9174.86 10358.70 12.9
March 10817.86 10939.88 1.13
January-March 29416.89 31698.69 7.76
April - March 116754.17 122431.46 4.86

Source : DGCIS, Govt. of India

TOP 25 ENGINEERING EXPORT DESTINATIONS IN April-March 2025-26

We now look at the export scenario of the top 25 nations that had highest demand for Indian engineering products during June 2025 over June 2024 as well as in cumulative terms during April-July 2025-26 vis-à-vis April-July 2024-25. The data clearly shows that top 25 countries contribute 74.5% of total engineering exports.

Table 2: Engineering exports country wise

(US$ million)

Countries Jul-2025 Jul-2026 Growth (%) April-March 2024-25 April-March 2025-26 Growth (%)
U S A 1886.8 1831.36 -2.94% 19157.31 19603.31 2.33%
SINGAPORE 334.63 561.72 67.86% 4469.33 4501.89 0.73%
CHINA P RP 216.07 456.98 111.5% 2667.47 3531.09 32.38%
GERMANY 402.69 456.85 13.45% 4337.14 4968.54 14.56%
U K 429.07 443.14 3.28% 4013.22 4744.86 18.23%
MEXICO 314.26 304.26 -3.18% 3536.02 3384.43 -4.29%
SOUTH AFRICA 225.55 279.54 23.94% 2517.98 2895.27 14.98%
ITALY 261.77 278.65 6.45% 2994.04 3472.74 15.99%
VIETNAM SOC REP 139.21 264.43 89.96% 1435.26 2052.41 43%
JAPAN 211.39 255.01 20.63% 2438.09 2654.09 8.86%
SAUDI ARAB 450.57 247.72 -45.02% 5635.38 4892.99 -13.17%
KOREA RP 262.14 244.36 -6.78% 2597.12 3030.9 16.7%
U ARAB EMTS 714.82 237.4 -66.79% 8277.5 7457.78 -9.9%
MALAYSIA 127.23 233.8 83.75% 1458.72 1686.55 15.62%
BRAZIL 216.12 227.1 5.08% 2238 2497.74 11.61%
FRANCE 206.87 223.65 8.11% 2496.03 2346.44 -5.99%
NEPAL 218.07 221.77 1.7% 2252.03 2412.87 7.14%
NETHERLAND 172.66 184.82 7.04% 1905.41 2226.82 16.87%
TURKEY 253.03 181.6 -28.23% 3044.6 1959.22 -35.65%
THAILAND 181.69 166.46 -8.38% 2005.25 2140.29 6.73%
SRI LANKA DSR 119.2 164.55 38.05% 1166.96 1765.37 51.28%
BANGLADESH PR 214.2 158.3 -26.1% 2187.61 1919.79 -12.24%
BELGIUM 146.6 158.05 7.81% 1400.94 1753.91 25.2%
SPAIN 112.64 156.69 39.11% 1386.54 1792.16 29.25%
AUSTRALIA 137.14 145.88 6.38% 1239.48 1565.16 26.28%
Total engineering exports to top 25 countries 7954.45 8084.12 1.63% 86857.44 91256.62 5.06%
Total engineering exports 10817.86 10939.88 1.13% 116754.17 122431.46 4.86%

Source : DGCI&S

REGION WISE INDIA’S ENGINEERING EXPORTS

The following table depicts region wise India’s engineering exports for April-July 2025 as compared to April-July 2024

Table 3: Region wise engineering exports in April-February 2023-2024 vis-à-vis April-March 2024-2025

(US$ million)

Regions Jul-2025 Jul-2026 Growth (%) April-March 2024-25 April-March 2025-26 Growth (%)
NORTH AMERICA 2315.24 2253.92 -2.65% 23920.41 24379.84 1.92%
EUROPEAN UNION 1769.67 1868.7 5.6% 20058.77 21793.04 8.65%
ASEAN 992.03 1493.7 50.57% 12245.43 13120.71 7.15%
N E ASIA 848.18 1094.4 29.03% 8768.11 10432.74 18.99%
SSA( Sub Saharan Africa) 879.5 1043.32 18.63% 8759.86 10101.92 15.32%
WANA 1751.92 864.29 -50.67% 19503.03 17938.41 -8.02%
LATIN AMERICA 601.87 729.92 21.27% 6188.08 7111.92 14.93%
OTHER EUROPE 724.93 676.84 -6.63% 7553.99 7217.28 -4.46%
SOUTH ASIA 612.75 598.29 -2.36% 6494.01 6742.84 3.83%
OCEANIA 146.51 154 5.11% 1378.54 1712.08 24.19%
CIS 164.39 148.28 -9.8% 1813.84 1706.87 -5.9%
OTHERS 10.81 1.96 -81.87% 69.99 161.55 130.81%

Note : *Figures have been rounded off.

Source : DGCI&S **Myanmar has been included in ASEAN and not in South Asia, since ASEAN is a formal economic grouping.

PRODUCT PANEL WISE ENGINEERING EXPORTS

In this section we look at the Engineering Panel wise exports for the month of July 2025 vis-à-vis July 2024 as well as the cumulative exports for April-July 2025-26 vis-à-vis April-July 2024-25. These are indicated in the tables below.

Table 4a. Trend in exports of iron and steel and its products

(US$ million)

Product panels March-2025 March-2026 Growth April-March 2024-25 April-March 2025-26 Growth
IRON AND STEEL 810.1 901.8 11.32% 9251.07 10316.57 11.52%
PRODUCTS OF IRON AND STEEL 981.27 814.25 -17.02% 10116.83 10362.53 2.43%
Sub Total 1791.36 1716.06 -4% 19367.89 20679.1 7%

Source : DGCI&S

Table 4b. Trend in exports of Non-Ferrous Metals and Products

US$ Million

Product panels March-2025 March-2026 Growth April-March 2024-25 April-March 2025-26 Growth
Aluminium and products made of Aluminium 654.89 699.98 6.88% 6855.74 7062.97 3.02%
Copper and products made of copper 205.92 469.02 127.77% 2320.57 3694.48 59.21%
Lead and products made of Lead 108.93 104.51 -4.05% 945.66 1268.68 34.16%
Nickel and products made of Nickel 21.05 20.7 -1.65% 190.43 188.65 -0.94%
Other Non Ferrous Metals and their products 86.25 99.89 15.82% 870.75 1046.02 20.13%
Tin and products made of Tin 3.24 7.72 138.39% 22.82 50.8 122.62%
Zinc and products made of zinc 64.56 109.78 70.04% 740.49 878.72 18.67%
Sub Total 1144.83 1511.61 32% 11946.46 14190.3 19%

Source : DGCI&S

Table 4c. Trend in exports of Industrial Machinery

US$ Million

Product panels March-2025 March-2026 Growth April-March 2024-25 April-March 2025-26 Growth
Air condition and Refrigeration Machinery and Parts, Industrial Furnaces, Water heaters and Centrifuges and Compressor 220.24 258.79 17.51% 1964.54 2311.35 17.65%
IC Engines and Parts 396.01 344.81 -12.93% 3881.86 4115.94 6.03%
Industrial Machinery for dairy, agriculture, food processing, textiles, paper, chemicals, etc 904.53 786.13 -13.09% 8362.07 9024.65 7.92%
Machine Tools 83.69 74.73 -10.7% 808.55 897.56 11.01%
Machinery for ATMs, Injecting Moulding machinery, valves, etc 278.34 277.59 -0.27% 2837.07 3114.65 9.78%
Nuclear Reactors, Industrial Boilers and Parts 101.44 103.61 2.14% 855.52 1035.86 21.08%
Pumps of all types 142.49 131.9 -7.43% 1550.08 1632.17 5.3%
Sub Total 2126.75 1977.57 -7.01% 20259.7 22132.18 9.24%

Source : DGCI&S

Table 4d. Trend in exports of Electrical Machinery and Equipment

US$ Million

Product panels March-2025 March-2026 Growth April-March 2024-25 April-March 2025-26 Growth
Electric Machinery and Equipment 1387.22 1335.36 -3.74% 14380.13 15362.75 6.83%

Source : DGCI&S

Table 4e. Trend in exports of Auto and auto parts

US$ Million

Product panels March-2025 March-2026 Growth April-March 2024-25 April-March 2025-26 Growth
AUTO COMPONENTS/PARTS 784.699 733.228 -6.56% 8184.506 8564.328 4.64%
AUTO TYRES AND TUBES 293.694 283.332 -3.53% 3075.17 3199.749 4.05%
Motor Vehicle/cars 911.059 993.3 9.03% 9003.994 11086.703 23.13%
Two and Three Wheelers 303.738 383.233 26.17% 3206.615 3982.885 24.21%
Sub Total 2293.191 2393.095 4.36% 23470.285 26833.666 14.33%

Source : DGCI&S

Table 4f. Trend in exports of aircraft, spacecraft and parts and ships, boats and floating structures

US$ Million

Product panels March-2025 March-2026 Growth April-March 2024-25 April-March 2025-26 Growth
Aircrafts, Spacecrafts and Parts 233.04 164.85 -29.26% 6963.73 1664.25 614.13%
Ships, Boats and Floating Structures 254 381.04 50.02% 4295.55 4110.73 1518.4%
Sub Total 487.04 545.9 12.08% 11259.28 5774.98 -48.71%

Source : DGCI&S

Table 4g. Trend in exports of other engineering products

US$ Million

Product panels March-2025 March-2026 Growth April-March 2024-25 April-March 2025-26 Growth
BICYCLE AND PARTS 46.65 42.53 -8.83% 411.26 473.91 15.23%
Hand Tools, Cutting Tools and Implements made of Metals 98.79 88.44 -10.48% 1040.51 1022.37 -1.74%
Medical and Scientific Instruments 311.68 255.2 -18.12% 2935.16 2859.16 -2.59%
OFFICE EQUIPMENTS 31.68 30.24 -4.55% 288 394.76 37.07%
OTHER CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY 302.65 317.89 5.03% 3028.77 3624.05 19.65%
OTHER MISC. ITEMS 488.91 434.67 -11.09% 5112.71 5605.42 9.64%
PRIME MICA AND MICA PRODUCTS 3.56 2.73 -23.47% 31.67 29.76 -6.01%
Railway Transport and Parts 28.1 43.58 55.08% 357.12 504.11 41.16%
PROJECT GOODS 0.86 0.05 -93.94% 3.17 1.78 -43.78%
OTHR RUBBER PRODCT EXCPT FOOTW 171.63 164.54 -4.13% 1779.1 1870.59 5.14%

Source : DGCI&S

ENGINEERING PRODUCT PANELS – COUNTRY-WISE ANALYSIS

Reasons for Decline (As per April-July 2025-26):

Aluminium:

  • While cumulative aluminium exports have remained negative, it recorded slight growth in July 2025, first time in the current fiscal.
  • Massive decline has been noted in Turkey (-78%) during April-July 2025 mainly due to ongoing geo-political tensions. In July alone the decline is more than 90%
  • Decline has been noted in Mexico in both cumulative and monthly terms. Decline in Bangladesh (-25%) is also noted in both monthly and cumulative terms mainly due to export restrictions put by both countries

Zinc:

  • The decline in Zinc exports is primarily due to global supply exceeding demand. As per the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global market for refined zinc metal was in surplus by 151kt over the first four months of 2025
  • Main decline has been noted in ASEAN countries including Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. The downward trend may be due to slowdown in authotive and synthetic rubber segments

Nickel:

 https://www.ilzsg.org/wp-content/uploads/3.PRESS%20RELEASES/20250618_ILZSG%20Press%20Release%20June%202025.pdf 

  • The decline in India’s Nickel exports is mainly due to rising domestic demand especially in the EV and renewable sector and also rising geopolitical tensions affecting exports to CIS region, Middle East and Europe. Export decline has been noted majorly in Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Germany
Table 5: Export of Different Panels

(US$ million)

Product panels Top 5 nations April-March 2024-25 April-March 2025-26 Growth (%)
Iron and Steel and Products made of Iron and Steel
U S A 3692.8 3746.21 1%
ITALY 1333.66 1506.89 13%
U ARAB EMTS 1564.63 1448.62 -7%
U K 868.1 893.41 3%
NEPAL 896.58 841.58 -6%
Non-Ferrous Metals and Products made of Non-Ferrous Metals
U S A 1533.95 1796.38 17%
SAUDI ARAB 768.34 1312.25 71%
KOREA RP 986.66 1301.02 32%
CHINA P RP 619.47 1226.45 98%
VIETNAM SOC REP 427.35 707.7 66%
Industrial Machinery
U S A 4223.02 4385.32 4%
U ARAB EMTS 1012.6 1265.41 25%
GERMANY 899.68 979.42 9%
CHINA P RP 851.95 946.44 11%
SAUDI ARAB 681.11 753.19 11%
Electrical Machinery
U S A 2722.74 2958.74 9%
SINGAPORE 1526.07 1592.89 4%
U K 1213.44 1467.24 21%
GERMANY 950.51 1098.09 16%
KOREA RP 683.88 784.06 15%
Automobiles
U S A 2408.08 2285.14 -5%
MEXICO 1832.48 1885.92 3%
SOUTH AFRICA 1620.27 1875.09 16%
SAUDI ARAB 1661.54 1610.32 -3%
U ARAB EMTS 1132.24 1279.99 13%
Aircrafts and Spacecraft parts and products
U S A 456.68 516.4 13%
FRANCE 747.18 301.37 -60%
U K 154.86 186.38 20%
GERMANY 82.39 96.94 18%
SINGAPORE 78.1 69.6 -11%
Ships Boats and Floating products and parts
SINGAPORE 1812.55 1407.44 -22%
U ARAB EMTS 1107.2 1314 19%
SRI LANKA DSR 269.84 334.46 24%
OMAN 10.37 176.38 1600%
CHINA P RP 0.01 161.14 1332714%
Project Goods
U S A 0.44 0.43 -3%
FRANCE 0.03 0.28 785%
U K 0.01 0.16 2345%
NIGERIA 0.03 0.12 262%
OMAN 0.01 0.1 1339%
Other Rubber Product Except Footwear
U S A 406.14 390.02 -4%
GERMANY 112.07 137.26 22%
U ARAB EMTS 76.26 77.81 2%
CHINA P RP 65.95 74.68 13%
NETHERLAND 67.25 65.35 -3%
Other engineering products
U S A 3007.93 3153.01 5%
GERMANY 751.8 765.21 2%
U ARAB EMTS 609.89 732.42 20%
U K 607.54 689.58 14%
BRAZIL 364.94 406.16 11%

Source : DGCI&S

ENGINEERING EXPORTS – STATE-WISE ANALYSIS

State wise engineering export performance

State wise engineering export performance- Data as on 2024-25

( Note: Current fiscal 2025-26 data not yet updated as per Niryat Portal)

The table below indicates the exports from top Indian states. It is evident from the table that almost 91.5% of India’s exports is contributed by the listed 12 states. Within this almost 50 percent of exports is done by Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat together.

  • Top 12 states constitute over 91.5 % of India’s engineering Exports. Once again, Karnataka maintained its 5th position, Telengana retained its 4th position, Odisha coming down to 7th position, West Bengal coming down to 11th position, while Rajasthan moving up to 12th position and Haryana remarkably moved up to 6th position during the fiscal April-March 2024-25 compared to the same period last fiscal.( as per estimates of Niryat Portal)
  • Major negative growth witnessed in states like Maharashtra ( decline by 1.9%), Odisha, ( decline by 17.1%), Andhra Pradesh (decline by 11.6%) and Rajasthan (decline by 0.9%) during April-March 2024-25 compared to the same period last fiscal.
  • Maharashtra being the highest state in terms of Engineering Goods exports ( constituting a share of 19.7%) is leading by US$ 4.44 billion from Tamil Nadu(Second Highest State) for the period of April-March 2024-25
Table 6: Top state wise engineering export performance - April-January 2025-26

(US$ million)

Top States Cumulative Export April-January 2025-26 Share % Remark
Maharashtra 25061.2 20.47% 91.5% share covered by top 12 states
Tamil Nadu 20397.4 16.66%
Gujarat 18150.4 14.82%
Karnataka 9598 7.84%
Haryana 8898.3 7.27%
Odisha 6376.1 5.21%
Uttar Pradesh 4511.6 3.69%
Andhra Pradesh 4333.3 3.54%
Delhi 4068.5 3.32%
West Bengal 3645 2.98%
Rajasthan 3554 2.9%
Punjab 3038.9 2.48%
Telangana 2512.3 2.05%
Madhya Pradesh 2068 1.69%
DADRA,NH,DAMAN,DIU 1632 1.33%
Kerala 1102.8 0.9%
JHARKHAND 891.1 0.73%
Chhattisgarh 797 0.65%
Uttarakhand 593.6 0.48%
Goa 550.6 0.45%
Puducherry 181.9 0.15%
Himachal Pradesh 177.1 0.14%
Bihar 136.4 0.11%
CHANDIGARH 69.2 0.06%
Jammu & Kashmir 41.2 0.03%
Assam 31.3 0.03%
TRIPURA 9.4 0.01%
MANIPUR 2.2 0%
SIKKIM 1.7 0%
ARUNACHAL PRADESH 0.7 0%
Meghalaya 0.1 0%
NAGALAND 0 0%
LAKSHADWEEP 0 0%
ANDAMAN AND NICOBAR ISLANDS 0 0%
MIZORAM 0 0%
LADAKH 0 0%
Others 0 0%

Source : DGCI&S

Region wise engineering exports

In terms of region, western region which includes industrial states like Maharashtra and Gujarat is the front runner in terms of exports with 34.1 percent share. Tamil Nadu from the Southern Region has retained its export performance and it ranked second after Maharashtra, while Gujarat and Telengana ranked third and fourth during April-March 2024-25.

Note : DGCI&S state wise data available till Jul-2026

Table 7: Region wise exports from India till Jul-2026

Value in US$ million

Region Apr-Jul 2024-25($Mn) Apr-Jul 2025-26 ($Mn) Growth %
SOUTHERN REGION 38322 38125.7 -0.51%
EASTERN REGION 11090.7 11891 7.22%
WESTERN REGION 42803.2 47462.2 10.88%
NORTHERN REGION 24533.3 24952.4 1.71%
Others 4.8 0 -100%
Grand Total 116754 122431.3 4.86%

CORRELATION BETWEEN MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION AND ENGINEERING EXPORTS

Engineering forms a considerable part of the broader manufacturing sector and the share of engineering production in overall manufacturing output is quite significant. As exports generally come from what is produced within a country, some correlation between manufacturing production growth and engineering export growth should exist. We briefly look at the trend in manufacturing growth as also engineering export growth to see if they move in tandem. It may be mentioned that manufacturing has 77.63% weightage in India’s industrial production.

Engineering export growth and manufacturing output growth moved in the same direction in as many as nine out of twelve months in each of the fiscal years 2019-20 and 2020-21. During fiscal 2021-22, engineering export growth and manufacturing growth moved in the same direction in seven out of twelve monthswhile in each of fiscal 2022-23 and 2023-24, as many as10 out of 12 months saw engineering exports and manufacturing output moved in the same direction. In 2024-25, both moved in the same direction in eight out of 12 months.

The first two month of fiscal 2025-26 saw engineering export growth and manufacturing output growth moved in the opposite direction. In April, engineering export growth surged to double digit and manufacturing growth decelerated, while in May engineering export declined and manufacturing output growth inched up over the month. In June 2025 however, both moved on the same direction witnessing improvement in growth.

The link between these two may not be established in one or two months, but a positive correlation may be seen if medium to long term trend is considered. 

Table 8: Engineering exports growth vis-à-vis manufacturing growth from April 2020
Months/ Year Engg. Export Growth (%) Manufacturing Growth (%)
April 2020 -63.05 -66.6
May 2020 -22.17 -37.8
June 2020 -5.18 -17.0
July 2020 10.56 -11.4
August 2020 -7.01 -7.6
September 2020 4.09 0.4
October 2020 -5.01 4.5
November 2020 -8.37 -1.6
December 2020 -0.93 2.7
January 2021 16.66 -0.9
February 2021 -4.94 -3.4
March 2021 67.75 28.3
April 2021 236.85 196.0
May 2021 50.21 32.1
June 2021 51.00 13.2
July 2021 42.57 10.5
August 2021 58.63 11.1
September 2021 35.11 4.3
October 2021 51.76 3.3
November 2021 37.28 0.3
December 2021 47.42 0.6
January 2022 25.63 1.9
February 2022 35.49 0.2
March 2022 19.72 1.4
April 2022 18.30 5.6
May 2022 11.45 20.6
June 2022 3.01 13.0
July 2022 -0.03 3.2
August 2022 -12.64 -0.5
September 2022 -11.39 2.0
October 2022 -19.68 -5.8
November 2022 0.09 6.7
December 2022 -11.60 3.6
January 2023 -9.76 4.0
February 2023 -9.73 5.6
March 2023 -7.49 0.5
April 2023 -7.27 5.5
May 2023 -4.13 6.3
June 2023 -10.94 3.5
July 2023 -6.65 5.0
August 2023 7.83 9.3
September 2023 6.81 4.5
October 2023 7.20 N A
November 2023 -3.48 1.2
December 2023 9.82 4.5
January 2024 4.21 3.6
February 2024 15.9 5.0
March 2024 10.66 N A
April 2024 -4.49 3.9
May 2024 7.41 4.6
June 2024 10.27 N A
July 2024 3.66 4.6
August 2024 4.26 1.0
September 2024 9.44 3.9
October 2024 38.39 4.1
November 2024 13.72 5.5
December 2024 8.33 3.4
January 2025 7.46 5.5
February 2025 -8.64 2.9
April 2025 -3.92 3.0
May 2025 -0.80 2.6
June 2025 1.28 2.9
July 2025 13.86 5.4
August 2025 4.90 3.8
September 2025 2.93 4.8
October 2025 -16.72 1.8
November 2025 23.79 8.0
December 2026 1.29 8.4
January 2026 10.35 5.3
February 2026 12.91 6.0

Source :Department of Commerce and CSO

IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE ON INDIA’S EXPORTS

How did the exchange rate fare during July 2025 and what was the recent trend in Re-Dollar movement? In order to get a clearer picture of the recent Re-Dollar trend, not only we took the exchange rate of July 2025, but also considered monthly average exchange rate of Rupee vis-à-vis the US Dollar for each month of fiscal 2023-24, 2024-25 and fiscal 2025-26 as per the latest data published, as mere one-month figure does not reflect any trend. The following two tables clearly depicts the short-term trend.

Fig 3: Trend of Rupee vis-a-vis US dollar from April 2020

(Monthly Average Rate of FBIL has been considered)

Source : FBIL

Table 9: USD-INR monthly average exchange rate in 2025-26 vis-à-vis 2024-25

(As per latest data released by FBIL)

Monthly Average Exchange Rate (1 USD to INR) Year-on-Year Change (%) Direction Month-on-Month Change (%) Direction
Month 2024-25 2025-26
April 83.41 85.56 2.58 Depreciation -1.25 Appreciation
May 83.39 85.19 2.16 Depreciation -0.43 Appreciation
June 83.47 85.90 2.91 Depreciation 0.83 Depreciation
July 83.59 86.11 3.01 Depreciation 0.24 Depreciation
August 83.90 87.52 4.31 Depreciation 1.64 Depreciation
September 83.81 88.32 5.38 Depreciation 0.91 Depreciation
October 84.03 88.42 5.22 Depreciation 0.11 Depreciation
November 84.36 88.83 5.30 Depreciation 0.46 Depreciation
December 84.99 90.09 6.00 Depreciation 1.42 Depreciation
January 86.26 90.80 5.25 Depreciation 0.79 Depreciation
February 87.05 90.77 4.27 Depreciation -0.03 Appreciation
March 86.64 92.76 7.06 Depreciation 2.19 Depreciation

Rupee continued to depreciate both on a monthly as well as yearly basis in July 2025: INR depreciated vis-à-vis the US Dollar by 0.24 percent in July 2025 over the previous month and a much higher 3.01 percent on a year-on-year basis. Rupee dropped to below 87 per US Dollar by the end of July 2025 and closed the month at 87.55 per US Dollar. Uncertainty over an India-U.S. trade deal after U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at tariff hike wighed on rupee. Month-end dollar demand from importers and sustained foreign fund outflows also weighed on the Indian local unit.

Outlook: Uncertainty on trade due to imposition of reciprocal tariff by USA clouded the global socio-economic scenario and hence the outlook for rupee. A trend may be established once tariff stability is seen.

Table 10: USD-INR monthly average exchange rate in 2024-25 vis-à-vis 2023-24

(As per latest data released by FBIL)

Monthly Average Exchange Rate (1 USD to INR) Year-on-Year Change (%) Direction Month-on-Month Change (%) Direction
Month 2023-24 2024-25
April 82.02 83.41 1.69 Depreciation 0.49 Depreciation
May 82.34 83.39 1.28 Depreciation -0.02 Appreciation
June 82.23 83.47 1.51 Depreciation 0.10 Depreciation
July 82.15 83.59 1.75 Depreciation 0.14 Depreciation
August 82.79 83.89 1.33 Depreciation 0.36 Depreciation
September 83.05 83.81 0.92 Depreciation -0.10 Depreciation
October 83.24 84.02 0.94 Depreciation 0.25 Depreciation
November 83.30 84.36 1.27 Depreciation 0.40 Depreciation
December 83.28 84.99 2.05 Depreciation 0.75 Depreciation
January 83.14 86.27 3.76 Depreciation 1.51 Depreciation
February 82.96 87.05 4.93 Depreciation 0.90 Depreciation
March 83.00 86.64 4.39 Depreciation -0.47 Appreciation

Source : FBIL, EEPC Research

TREND IN ENGINEERING TRADE BALANCE

We now present the trend in two-way yearly trade for the engineering sector for the 2025-26 depicted in the table below:

Table 11: Monthly Trend in Engineering Trade Balance for the current FY

(US$ million)

Trade Flow April May June July August September October November December January February March
Engineering Export 9.5 9.9 9.5 10.4 9.9 10.1 9.4 11.0 11.0 10.4 10.4 10.9
Engineering Import 13.4 13.8 11.5 14.0 13.2 13.4 13.8 13.5 14.0 14.0 12.9 13.3
Trade Balance -3.9 -3.9 -2.0 -3.6 -3.3 -3.3 -4.4 -2.5 -3.0 -3.6 -2.5 -2.4

Source : DGCI&S

TO CONCLUDE...

The Indian engineering exports recorded a growth for the second consecutive month after conceding a decline in May 2025. The decline was mainly due to decline in exports to WANA region including UAE and Saudi Arabia due to increasing logistics and shipping costs primarily after the geopolitical tensions in the region. There is also significant decline in exports to Turkey stemming out of the geopolitical tensions with India. In terms of products major decline was witnessed in metals including aluminium, zinc nickel.

The landscape of international trade in July 2025 is marked by tensions from escalating US tariff, regional diversgence and heightened policy uncertainty. As per WTO  global merchandise trade is projected to decline by 0.2% in 2025 with a possible deeper fall of up to 1.5% if trade tensions or new tariff measures intensify. The world is witnessing realignment of supply chains, and growing inward-looking trade policy in major economies threatening established production networkd. India also faces a huge tariff imposition from the US which makes our future quite uncertain given that US is our major export partner. In this scenario we need to diversify our markets and products to survive and increase our global market share. The support of Government of India both in terms of foreign policy and access to credit would be of great importance at this juncture.