January 2026

Engineering exports recorded more than 10% growth in January 2026 after registering marginal growth last month

Engineering exports from India turned out quite impressive in the month of July 2025 with shipments crossing USD 10 billion for the first time in fiscal 2025-26 and recorded higest year-on-year growth on a monthly basis in the current fiscal so far.
Indian engineering exports in July 2025 stood at USD 10.43 billion as against USD 9.16 billion in July 2024, securing 13.81 percent growth, the highest in this fiscal so far.
On a cumulative basis, engineering exports recorded 6.1 percent year-on-year growth as it went up to USD 39.34 billion in Apr –Jul 2025-26 from USD 37.08 billion during the same period last fiscal.
The share of engineering in total merchandise exports, according to the Quick Estimates of Department of Commerce, Government of India, rose sharply to 28 percent in July 2025 from 26.4 percent in July 2024.
On a cumulative basis also the share of engineering in total merchandise exports went up to 26.4 percent during Apr-Jul 2025-26 from 25.6 percent during the same period last fiscal. 
In July 2025, 29 out of 34 engineering panels witnessed positive year-on-year growth. While 5 engineering panels including mainly Aircrafts and Spacecrafts, Ship and Boats, Zinc and its products, etc. witnessed decline in exports during July 2025 vis-à-vis July 2024. 
On a cumulative basis, 28 out of 34 engineering panels recorded positive growth and remaining 6 engineering panels including Non-ferrous sectors including Aluminium products, Zinc products and Nickel, Aircraft and Spacecrafts, ships, boats and floating products, etc. recorded negative growth during April-July 2025-26.
Region wise, North America maintained its spot as the number one export destination with a share of 22% followed by EU (18%) and WANA (14%) in Apr-July 2025. 

Monthly Trend

Highlights

Product Panels

Impact of Exchange Rate

Conclude

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January-2026 engineering exports hit peak growth for fiscal 2025-2026

Engineering exports from India turned out quite impressive in the month of July 2025 with shipments crossing USD 10 billion for the first time in fiscal 2025-26 and recorded highest year-on-year growth on a monthly basis in the current fiscal so far. Indian engineering exports in July 2025 stood at USD 10.43 billion as against USD 9.16 billion in July 2024, securing 13.81 percent growth. On a cumulative basis, engineering exports recorded 6.1 percent year-on-year growth as it went up to USD 39.34 billion in Apr –Jul 2025-26 from USD 37.08 billion during the same period last fiscal. The share of engineering in total merchandise exports rose sharply to 28 percent in July 2025 from 26.4 percent in July 2024 and also went up on a cumulative basis to 26.4 percent during Apr-Jul 2025-26 from 25.6 percent during the same period last fiscal. The growth run of engineering exports in this fiscal was attributed to good performances of product segments namely Electric machinery and equipment, Motor vehicles/Cars, Products of Iron and steel, and Industrial machinery among others while Aircrafts and spacecraft was the biggest spoilsport. North America remained the top export destination followed by the European Union, both showing healthy growth in this fiscal till date. Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa stood out with impressive double-digit growth while Northeast Asia also performed well with a double digit growth. CIS, WANA and Other Europe were the damagers with negative cumulative export growth. However, within CIS, engineering exports to Russia witnessed excellent growth during July 2025. Among the top destination countries, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Singapore conceded decline in engineering exports from India during this fiscal.

Trade Flow	Export figures(in $ billion)				Growth (%)
	Jul-2025	Jul-2026	Apr-Jul 2024-25	Apr-Jul 2025-26	Jul-2026 over Jul-2025	Apr-Jul 2024-25 over Apr-Jul 2025-26
							Engineering exports	9.42	10.40	96.76	101.13	10.4%	4.52%
							Overall merchandise exports	36.33	36.55	358.74	366.62	0.61%	2.20%
Share of engineering (%)	25.9%	28.5%	27.0%	27.6%	---	---
Service Exports	34.75	43.90	320.28	354.13	26.33%	10.57%

Source : Compiled from data by DGCI&S and Quick Estimates published by the Government of India.

Engineering Exports: Monthly Trend

The monthly engineering export figures for 2025-26 vis-à-vis 2024-25 are shown below as per the latest DGCI&S estimates:

Table 1: Engineering Exports: Monthly Trend in 2025-26

US$ million

Month	2024-25	2025-26	Growth (%)
April	8557.11	9513.72	11.18
May	9974.13	9889.09	-0.85
June	9386.21	9506.66	1.28
April-June	27917.46	28909.47	3.55
July	9162.17	10433.12	13.87
August	9437.14	9900.7	4.91
September	9826.24	10113.15	2.92
July-September	28425.55	30446.97	7.11
October	11253.08	9372.67	-16.71
November	8897.84	11012.20	23.76
December	10843.35	10981.94	1.28
October-December	30994.27	31369.25	1.21
January	9424.17	10401.80	10.37
April- January	96761.45	101131.86	4.52

Source : DGCIS, Govt. of India

TOP 25 ENGINEERING EXPORT DESTINATIONS IN April-January 2025-26

We now look at the export scenario of the top 25 nations that had highest demand for Indian engineering products during June 2025 over June 2024 as well as in cumulative terms during April-July 2025-26 vis-à-vis April-July 2024-25. The data clearly shows that top 25 countries contribute 74.5% of total engineering exports.

Table 2: Engineering exports country wise

(US$ million)

Countries	Jul-2025	Jul-2026	Growth (%)	April-January 2024-25	April-January 2025-26	Growth (%)
U S A	1622.85	1513.23	-6.75%	15613.93	16195.43	3.72%
U ARAB EMTS	611.79	871.48	42.45%	6874.46	6628.23	-3.58%
SAUDI ARAB	389.16	518.58	33.25%	4861.23	4189.04	-13.83%
GERMANY	360.31	443.49	23.09%	3500.55	4081.21	16.59%
U K	347.66	408.91	17.62%	3258.99	3892.03	19.42%
SINGAPORE	169.72	363.8	114.35%	3936.04	3669.11	-6.78%
CHINA P RP	240.69	304.85	26.66%	2243.94	2637.18	17.52%
JAPAN	230.88	285.85	23.81%	1987.18	2215.39	11.48%
ITALY	211.02	284.86	34.99%	2490.38	2917.5	17.15%
KOREA RP	189.46	248.33	31.08%	2110.02	2476.77	17.38%
SOUTH AFRICA	245.96	246.67	0.29%	2108.17	2400.95	13.89%
MEXICO	272.58	244.68	-10.24%	2945.79	2764.77	-6.14%
NEPAL	185.61	208.15	12.15%	1854.49	1961.81	5.79%
VIETNAM SOC REP	104.52	202.83	94.07%	1197.07	1621.26	35.44%
BRAZIL	170.06	187.62	10.33%	1845.75	2067.09	11.99%
TURKEY	215.65	184.26	-14.56%	2608.54	1609.37	-38.3%
NETHERLAND	163.6	183.75	12.32%	1580.9	1871.4	18.38%
FRANCE	202.11	177.55	-12.15%	2072.88	1917.59	-7.49%
SRI LANKA DSR	89.88	163.23	81.61%	951.99	1438.32	51.09%
THAILAND	170.23	153.5	-9.83%	1655.05	1807.88	9.23%
SPAIN	105.67	152.05	43.89%	1176.2	1475.42	25.44%
BANGLADESH PR	189.77	150.56	-20.66%	1771.23	1623.44	-8.34%
INDONESIA	130.91	149.08	13.88%	1685.81	1305.18	-22.58%
AUSTRALIA	100.44	124.34	23.79%	1011.51	1280.93	26.64%
CANADA	101.52	121.71	19.88%	1016.12	1112.25	9.46%
Total engineering exports to top 25 countries	6822.05	7893.36	15.7%	72358.22	75159.55	3.87%
Total engineering exports	9424.17	10401.8	10.37%	96761.45	101131.86	4.52%

Source : DGCI&S

REGION WISE INDIA’S ENGINEERING EXPORTS

The following table depicts region wise India’s engineering exports for April-July 2025 as compared to April-July 2024

Table 3: Region wise engineering exports in April-February 2023-2024 vis-à-vis April-January 2024-2025

(US$ million)

Regions	Jul-2025	Jul-2026	Growth (%)	April-January 2024-25	April-January 2025-26	Growth (%)
NORTH AMERICA	1996.95	1879.61	-5.88%	19575.84	20072.46	2.54%
WANA	1473.28	1857.16	26.06%	16273.86	15543.97	-4.49%
EUROPEAN UNION	1585.12	1761.09	11.1%	16579.48	18101.59	9.18%
ASEAN	735.99	1075.4	46.12%	10521.71	10664.28	1.35%
N E ASIA	735.63	964.33	31.09%	7153.57	8329.22	16.43%
SSA( Sub Saharan Africa)	938.68	825.67	-12.04%	7203.16	8192.35	13.73%
OTHER EUROPE	594.96	640.85	7.71%	6298.69	5909.68	-6.18%
SOUTH ASIA	542.13	568.73	4.91%	5350.19	5553.07	3.79%
LATIN AMERICA	549.51	538.17	-2.06%	5120.48	5793.88	13.15%
CIS	153.31	141.15	-7.93%	1499.22	1420.96	-5.22%
OCEANIA	107.82	137.13	27.19%	1134.12	1409.79	24.31%
OTHERS	10.79	2.22	-79.45%	51.08	130.32	155.13%

Note : *Figures have been rounded off.

Source : DGCI&S **Myanmar has been included in ASEAN and not in South Asia, since ASEAN is a formal economic grouping.

PRODUCT PANEL WISE ENGINEERING EXPORTS

In this section we look at the Engineering Panel wise exports for the month of July 2025 vis-à-vis July 2024 as well as the cumulative exports for April-July 2025-26 vis-à-vis April-July 2024-25. These are indicated in the tables below.

Table 4a. Trend in exports of iron and steel and its products

(US$ million)

Product panels	January-2025	January-2026	Growth	April-January 2024-25	April-January 2025-26	Growth
IRON AND STEEL	745.68	912.01	22.31%	7752.22	8570.84	10.56%
PRODUCTS OF IRON AND STEEL	899.81	908.6	0.98%	8304.03	8711.52	4.91%
Sub Total	1645.49	1820.61	11%	16056.25	17282.36	8%

Source : DGCI&S

Table 4b. Trend in exports of Non-Ferrous Metals and Products

US$ Million

Product panels	January-2025	January-2026	Growth	April-January 2024-25	April-January 2025-26	Growth
Aluminium and products made of Aluminium	575.45	666.21	15.77%	5705.99	5767.44	1.08%
Copper and products made of copper	227.91	346.92	52.22%	1942.98	2887.33	48.6%
Lead and products made of Lead	79.75	118.9	49.09%	743.25	1063.19	43.05%
Nickel and products made of Nickel	18.34	14.66	-20.06%	152.9	150.07	-1.85%
Other Non Ferrous Metals and their products	76.04	92.78	22.01%	713.42	856.39	20.04%
Tin and products made of Tin	1.39	5.97	328.79%	18.54	34.24	84.65%
Zinc and products made of zinc	60.22	82.46	36.94%	618	685.44	10.91%
Sub Total	1039.1	1327.91	28%	9895.09	11444.1	16%

Source : DGCI&S

Table 4c. Trend in exports of Industrial Machinery

US$ Million

Product panels	January-2025	January-2026	Growth	April-January 2024-25	April-January 2025-26	Growth
Air condition and Refrigeration Machinery and Parts, Industrial Furnaces, Water heaters and Centrifuges and Compressor	174.98	187.5	7.15%	1580.22	1845.98	16.82%
IC Engines and Parts	324.85	315.27	-2.95%	3141.2	3444.01	9.64%
Industrial Machinery for dairy, agriculture, food processing, textiles, paper, chemicals, etc	697.21	729.54	4.64%	6772.49	7487.14	10.55%
Machine Tools	64.58	65.86	1.98%	652.43	755.35	15.78%
Machinery for ATMs, Injecting Moulding machinery, valves, etc	251.81	258.78	2.77%	2316.33	2578.62	11.32%
Nuclear Reactors, Industrial Boilers and Parts	65.42	71.09	8.68%	680.01	842.27	23.86%
Pumps of all types	121.43	135.6	11.67%	1283.08	1370.86	6.84%
Sub Total	1700.28	1763.64	3.73%	16425.75	18324.24	11.56%

Source : DGCI&S

Table 4d. Trend in exports of Electrical Machinery and Equipment

US$ Million

Product panels	January-2025	January-2026	Growth	April-January 2024-25	April-January 2025-26	Growth
Electric Machinery and Equipment	1176.86	1275.02	8.34%	11768.87	12726.06	8.13%

Source : DGCI&S

Table 4e. Trend in exports of Auto and auto parts

US$ Million

Product panels	January-2025	January-2026	Growth	April-January 2024-25	April-January 2025-26	Growth
AUTO COMPONENTS/PARTS	660.764	686.239	3.86%	6745.366	7119.268	5.54%
AUTO TYRES AND TUBES	254.737	264.906	3.99%	2544.945	2653.88	4.28%
Motor Vehicle/cars	686.995	876.887	27.64%	7375.945	9089.167	23.23%
Two and Three Wheelers	255.36	329.918	29.2%	2637.235	3240.845	22.89%
Sub Total	1857.857	2157.95	16.15%	19303.49	22103.161	14.5%

Source : DGCI&S

Table 4f. Trend in exports of aircraft, spacecraft and parts and ships, boats and floating structures

US$ Million

Product panels	January-2025	January-2026	Growth	April-January 2024-25	April-January 2025-26	Growth
Aircrafts, Spacecrafts and Parts	617.65	128.36	-79.22%	6389.13	1353.27	119.1%
Ships, Boats and Floating Structures	95.4	453.1	374.96%	3819.11	3396.85	3460.72%
Sub Total	713.05	581.47	-18.45%	10208.24	4750.11	-53.47%

Source : DGCI&S

Table 4g. Trend in exports of other engineering products

US$ Million

Product panels	January-2025	January-2026	Growth	April-January 2024-25	April-January 2025-26	Growth
BICYCLE AND PARTS	37.2	40.2	8.06%	328	389.84	18.86%
Cranes, Lifts and Winches	79.95	81.51	1.95%	894.04	907	1.45%
Hand Tools, Cutting Tools and Implements made of Metals	92.68	80.71	-12.92%	860.73	851.45	-1.08%
Medical and Scientific Instruments	226.93	230.13	1.41%	2308.52	2355.95	2.05%
OFFICE EQUIPMENTS	17.71	27.69	56.36%	236.33	328.86	39.15%
OTHER CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY	234.19	379.31	61.97%	2468.11	2981.06	20.78%
OTHER MISC. ITEMS	423.1	455.75	7.72%	4202.52	4692.48	11.66%
PRIME MICA AND MICA PRODUCTS	2.97	1.85	-37.64%	25.93	25.18	-2.91%
Railway Transport and Parts	24.3	29.37	20.86%	306.77	412.39	34.43%
PROJECT GOODS	0.18	0.16	-13.1%	2.14	1.63	-23.93%
OTHR RUBBER PRODCT EXCPT FOOTW	152.31	148.53	-2.48%	1470.68	1555.98	5.8%

Source : DGCI&S

ENGINEERING PRODUCT PANELS – COUNTRY-WISE ANALYSIS

Reasons for Decline (As per April-July 2025-26):

Aluminium:

While cumulative aluminium exports have remained negative, it recorded slight growth in July 2025, first time in the current fiscal.
Massive decline has been noted in Turkey (-78%) during April-July 2025 mainly due to ongoing geo-political tensions. In July alone the decline is more than 90%
Decline has been noted in Mexico in both cumulative and monthly terms. Decline in Bangladesh (-25%) is also noted in both monthly and cumulative terms mainly due to export restrictions put by both countries

Zinc:

The decline in Zinc exports is primarily due to global supply exceeding demand. As per the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global market for refined zinc metal was in surplus by 151kt over the first four months of 2025
Main decline has been noted in ASEAN countries including Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. The downward trend may be due to slowdown in authotive and synthetic rubber segments

Nickel:

https://www.ilzsg.org/wp-content/uploads/3.PRESS%20RELEASES/20250618_ILZSG%20Press%20Release%20June%202025.pdf

The decline in India’s Nickel exports is mainly due to rising domestic demand especially in the EV and renewable sector and also rising geopolitical tensions affecting exports to CIS region, Middle East and Europe. Export decline has been noted majorly in Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Germany

Table 5: Export of Different Panels

(US$ million)

Product panels	Top 5 nations	April-January 2024-25	April-January 2025-26	Growth (%)
Iron and Steel and Products made of Iron and Steel
	U S A	2979.65	3102.01	4%
	U ARAB EMTS	1259.89	1294.31	3%
	ITALY	1124.86	1293.49	15%
	U K	737.05	706.9	-4%
	NEPAL	741.75	680.39	-8%
Non-Ferrous Metals and Products made of Non-Ferrous Metals
	U S A	1225.31	1466.45	20%
	SAUDI ARAB	637.06	1061.5	67%
	KOREA RP	806.93	1006.69	25%
	CHINA P RP	511.31	895.58	75%
	VIETNAM SOC REP	348.13	595.79	71%
Industrial Machinery
	U S A	3425.83	3601.86	5%
	U ARAB EMTS	804.85	1101.51	37%
	GERMANY	728.29	816.23	12%
	CHINA P RP	717.39	780.15	9%
	SAUDI ARAB	532.11	649.06	22%
Electrical Machinery
	U S A	2224.24	2483.74	12%
	U K	923.95	1304.31	41%
	SINGAPORE	1297.1	1259.85	-3%
	GERMANY	800.77	883.46	10%
	KOREA RP	528.52	685.73	30%
Automobiles
	U S A	1990.54	1880.06	-6%
	SOUTH AFRICA	1354.79	1599.4	18%
	MEXICO	1495.59	1522.68	2%
	SAUDI ARAB	1359.82	1422.55	5%
	U ARAB EMTS	931.32	1155.52	24%
Aircrafts and Spacecraft parts and products
	U S A	375.86	413.85	10%
	FRANCE	672.12	243.25	-64%
	U K	125.4	153.43	22%
	GERMANY	63.34	79.61	26%
	RUSSIA	21.98	59.68	171%
Ships Boats and Floating products and parts
	U ARAB EMTS	882.17	1215.6	38%
	SINGAPORE	1695.18	1206.86	-29%
	SRI LANKA DSR	233.59	316.46	35%
	INDONESIA	306.38	125.12	-59%
	OMAN	9.96	87.78	782%
Project Goods
	U S A	0.35	0.4	13%
	FRANCE	0.03	0.27	781%
	U K	0.01	0.16	2342%
	NIGERIA	0.03	0.1	287%
	OMAN	0.01	0.1	1357%
Other Rubber Product Except Footwear
	U S A	336.2	322.37	-4%
	GERMANY	93.21	111.67	20%
	U ARAB EMTS	63.93	66.68	4%
	CHINA P RP	55.05	62.63	14%
	NETHERLAND	54.75	53.27	-3%
Other engineering products
	U S A	2804.49	2919.02	4%
	U ARAB EMTS	540.27	686.11	27%
	GERMANY	558.86	666.62	19%
	U K	556.46	615.81	11%
	SAUDI ARAB	346.45	339.41	-2%

Source : DGCI&S

ENGINEERING EXPORTS – STATE-WISE ANALYSIS

State wise engineering export performance

State wise engineering export performance- Data as on 2024-25

( Note: Current fiscal 2025-26 data not yet updated as per Niryat Portal)

The table below indicates the exports from top Indian states. It is evident from the table that almost 91.5% of India’s exports is contributed by the listed 12 states. Within this almost 50 percent of exports is done by Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat together.

Top 12 states constitute over 91.5 % of India’s engineering Exports. Once again, Karnataka maintained its 5^th position, Telengana retained its 4^th position, Odisha coming down to 7^th position, West Bengal coming down to 11^th position, while Rajasthan moving up to 12^th position and Haryana remarkably moved up to 6^th position during the fiscal April-March 2024-25 compared to the same period last fiscal.( as per estimates of Niryat Portal)
Major negative growth witnessed in states like Maharashtra ( decline by 1.9%), Odisha, ( decline by 17.1%), Andhra Pradesh (decline by 11.6%) and Rajasthan (decline by 0.9%) during April-March 2024-25 compared to the same period last fiscal.
Maharashtra being the highest state in terms of Engineering Goods exports ( constituting a share of 19.7%) is leading by US$ 4.44 billion from Tamil Nadu(Second Highest State) for the period of April-March 2024-25

Table 6: Top state wise engineering export performance - April-November 2025-26

(US$ million)

Top States	Cumulative Export April-November 2025-26	Share %	Remark
Maharashtra	25102.4	27.42%	91.5% share covered by top 12 states
Tamil Nadu	18051.5	19.72%
Gujarat	13650.1	14.91%
Delhi	5215.8	5.7%
Karnataka	5122.8	5.6%
Haryana	3854.5	4.21%
Odisha	3732.7	4.08%
West Bengal	3415.9	3.73%
Andhra Pradesh	3247	3.55%
Uttar Pradesh	2537.5	2.77%
Punjab	1595.1	1.74%
Rajasthan	1231.6	1.35%
Telangana	1113	1.22%
Bihar	1002.8	1.1%
Kerala	939.9	1.03%
Goa	717.7	0.78%
Madhya Pradesh	589.7	0.64%
Uttarakhand	371.8	0.41%
Assam	38.6	0.04%
Puducherry	13.1	0.01%
Himachal Pradesh	3	0%
Others	2.1	0%
Chhattisgarh	0	0%
Jammu & Kashmir	0	0%
Meghalaya	0	0%

Source : DGCI&S

Region wise engineering exports

In terms of region, western region which includes industrial states like Maharashtra and Gujarat is the front runner in terms of exports with 34.1 percent share. Tamil Nadu from the Southern Region has retained its export performance and it ranked second after Maharashtra, while Gujarat and Telengana ranked third and fourth during April-March 2024-25.

Note : DGCI&S state wise data available till Jul-2026

Table 7: Region wise exports from India till Jul-2026

Value in US$ million

Region	Apr-Jul 2024-25($Mn)	Apr-Jul 2025-26 ($Mn)	Growth %
WESTERN REGION	35553.1	40059.9	12.68%
NORTHERN REGION	14671.1	14809.3	0.94%
Others	0	2.1	0%
SOUTHERN REGION	30453.1	28487.3	-6.46%
EASTERN REGION	7557	8190	8.38%
Grand Total	88234.3	91548.6	3.76%

CORRELATION BETWEEN MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION AND ENGINEERING EXPORTS

Engineering forms a considerable part of the broader manufacturing sector and the share of engineering production in overall manufacturing output is quite significant. As exports generally come from what is produced within a country, some correlation between manufacturing production growth and engineering export growth should exist. We briefly look at the trend in manufacturing growth as also engineering export growth to see if they move in tandem. It may be mentioned that manufacturing has 77.63% weightage in India’s industrial production.

Engineering export growth and manufacturing output growth moved in the same direction in as many as nine out of twelve months in each of the fiscal years 2019-20 and 2020-21. During fiscal 2021-22, engineering export growth and manufacturing growth moved in the same direction in seven out of twelve monthswhile in each of fiscal 2022-23 and 2023-24, as many as10 out of 12 months saw engineering exports and manufacturing output moved in the same direction. In 2024-25, both moved in the same direction in eight out of 12 months.

The first two month of fiscal 2025-26 saw engineering export growth and manufacturing output growth moved in the opposite direction. In April, engineering export growth surged to double digit and manufacturing growth decelerated, while in May engineering export declined and manufacturing output growth inched up over the month. In June 2025 however, both moved on the same direction witnessing improvement in growth.

The link between these two may not be established in one or two months, but a positive correlation may be seen if medium to long term trend is considered.

Table 8: Engineering exports growth vis-à-vis manufacturing growth from April 2020

Months/ Year	Engg. Export Growth (%)	Manufacturing Growth (%)
April 2020	-63.05	-66.6
May 2020	-22.17	-37.8
June 2020	-5.18	-17.0
July 2020	10.56	-11.4
August 2020	-7.01	-7.6
September 2020	4.09	0.4
October 2020	-5.01	4.5
November 2020	-8.37	-1.6
December 2020	-0.93	2.7
January 2021	16.66	-0.9
February 2021	-4.94	-3.4
March 2021	67.75	28.3
April 2021	236.85	196.0
May 2021	50.21	32.1
June 2021	51.00	13.2
July 2021	42.57	10.5
August 2021	58.63	11.1
September 2021	35.11	4.3
October 2021	51.76	3.3
November 2021	37.28	0.3
December 2021	47.42	0.6
January 2022	25.63	1.9
February 2022	35.49	0.2
March 2022	19.72	1.4
April 2022	18.30	5.6
May 2022	11.45	20.6
June 2022	3.01	13.0
July 2022	-0.03	3.2
August 2022	-12.64	-0.5
September 2022	-11.39	2.0
October 2022	-19.68	-5.8
November 2022	0.09	6.7
December 2022	-11.60	3.6
January 2023	-9.76	4.0
February 2023	-9.73	5.6
March 2023	-7.49	0.5
April 2023	-7.27	5.5
May 2023	-4.13	6.3
June 2023	-10.94	3.5
July 2023	-6.65	5.0
August 2023	7.83	9.3
September 2023	6.81	4.5
October 2023	7.20	N A
November 2023	-3.48	1.2
December 2023	9.82	4.5
January 2024	4.21	3.6
February 2024	15.9	5.0
March 2024	10.66	N A
April 2024	-4.49	3.9
May 2024	7.41	4.6
June 2024	10.27	N A
July 2024	3.66	4.6
August 2024	4.26	1.0
September 2024	9.44	3.9
October 2024	38.39	4.1
November 2024	13.72	5.5
December 2024	8.33	3.4
January 2025	7.46	5.5
February 2025	-8.64	2.9
April 2025	-3.92	3.0
May 2025	-0.80	2.6
June 2025	1.28	2.9
July 2025	13.86	5.4
August 2025	4.90	3.8
September 2025	2.93	4.8
October 2025	-16.72	1.8
November 2025	23.79	8.0

Source :Department of Commerce and CSO

IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE ON INDIA’S EXPORTS

How did the exchange rate fare during July 2025 and what was the recent trend in Re-Dollar movement? In order to get a clearer picture of the recent Re-Dollar trend, not only we took the exchange rate of July 2025, but also considered monthly average exchange rate of Rupee vis-à-vis the US Dollar for each month of fiscal 2023-24, 2024-25 and fiscal 2025-26 as per the latest data published, as mere one-month figure does not reflect any trend. The following two tables clearly depicts the short-term trend.

Fig 3: Trend of Rupee vis-a-vis US dollar from April 2020

(Monthly Average Rate of FBIL has been considered)

Source : FBIL

Table 9: USD-INR monthly average exchange rate in 2025-26 vis-à-vis 2024-25

(As per latest data released by FBIL)

Monthly Average Exchange Rate (1 USD to INR)			Year-on-Year Change (%)	Direction	Month-on-Month Change (%)	Direction
Month	2024-25	2025-26
April	83.41	85.56	2.58	Depreciation	-1.25	Appreciation
May	83.39	85.19	2.16	Depreciation	-0.43	Appreciation
June	83.47	85.90	2.91	Depreciation	0.83	Depreciation
July	83.59	86.11	3.01	Depreciation	0.24	Depreciation
August	83.90	87.52	4.31	Depreciation	1.64	Depreciation
September	83.81	88.32	5.38	Depreciation	0.91	Depreciation
October	84.03	88.42	5.22	Depreciation	0.11	Depreciation
November	84.36	88.83	5.30	Depreciation	0.46	Depreciation
December	84.99	90.09	6.00	Depreciation	1.42	Depreciation
January	86.26	90.80	5.25	Depreciation	0.79	Depreciation

Rupee continued to depreciate both on a monthly as well as yearly basis in July 2025: INR depreciated vis-à-vis the US Dollar by 0.24 percent in July 2025 over the previous month and a much higher 3.01 percent on a year-on-year basis. Rupee dropped to below 87 per US Dollar by the end of July 2025 and closed the month at 87.55 per US Dollar. Uncertainty over an India-U.S. trade deal after U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at tariff hike wighed on rupee. Month-end dollar demand from importers and sustained foreign fund outflows also weighed on the Indian local unit.

Outlook: Uncertainty on trade due to imposition of reciprocal tariff by USA clouded the global socio-economic scenario and hence the outlook for rupee. A trend may be established once tariff stability is seen.

Table 10: USD-INR monthly average exchange rate in 2024-25 vis-à-vis 2023-24

(As per latest data released by FBIL)

Monthly Average Exchange Rate (1 USD to INR)			Year-on-Year Change (%)	Direction	Month-on-Month Change (%)	Direction
Month	2023-24	2024-25
April	82.02	83.41	1.69	Depreciation	0.49	Depreciation
May	82.34	83.39	1.28	Depreciation	-0.02	Appreciation
June	82.23	83.47	1.51	Depreciation	0.10	Depreciation
July	82.15	83.59	1.75	Depreciation	0.14	Depreciation
August	82.79	83.89	1.33	Depreciation	0.36	Depreciation
September	83.05	83.81	0.92	Depreciation	-0.10	Depreciation
October	83.24	84.02	0.94	Depreciation	0.25	Depreciation
November	83.30	84.36	1.27	Depreciation	0.40	Depreciation
December	83.28	84.99	2.05	Depreciation	0.75	Depreciation
January	83.14	86.27	3.76	Depreciation	1.51	Depreciation
February	82.96	87.05	4.93	Depreciation	0.90	Depreciation
March	83.00	86.64	4.39	Depreciation	-0.47	Appreciation

Source : FBIL, EEPC Research

TREND IN ENGINEERING TRADE BALANCE

We now present the trend in two-way yearly trade for the engineering sector for the 2025-26 depicted in the table below:

Table 11: Monthly Trend in Engineering Trade Balance for the current FY

(US$ million)

Trade Flow	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December	January
Engineering Export	9.5	9.9	9.5	10.4	9.9	10.1	9.4	11.0	11.0	10.4
Engineering Import	13.4	13.8	11.5	14.0	13.2	13.4	13.8	13.5	14.0	14.0
Trade Balance	-3.9	-3.9	-2.0	-3.6	-3.3	-3.3	-4.4	-2.5	-3.0	-3.6

Source : DGCI&S

TO CONCLUDE...

The Indian engineering exports recorded a growth for the second consecutive month after conceding a decline in May 2025. The decline was mainly due to decline in exports to WANA region including UAE and Saudi Arabia due to increasing logistics and shipping costs primarily after the geopolitical tensions in the region. There is also significant decline in exports to Turkey stemming out of the geopolitical tensions with India. In terms of products major decline was witnessed in metals including aluminium, zinc nickel.

The landscape of international trade in July 2025 is marked by tensions from escalating US tariff, regional diversgence and heightened policy uncertainty. As per WTO global merchandise trade is projected to decline by 0.2% in 2025 with a possible deeper fall of up to 1.5% if trade tensions or new tariff measures intensify. The world is witnessing realignment of supply chains, and growing inward-looking trade policy in major economies threatening established production networkd. India also faces a huge tariff imposition from the US which makes our future quite uncertain given that US is our major export partner. In this scenario we need to diversify our markets and products to survive and increase our global market share. The support of Government of India both in terms of foreign policy and access to credit would be of great importance at this juncture.