After achieving a high growth of 11.28 percent year-on-year in April 2025, Indian engineering exports conceded a marginal 0.82 percent decline in May 2025 over the same month last fiscal. Engineering exports from India in May 2025 was recorded at USD 9,887.01 million as against USD 9,968.45 million in May 2024. Although, engineering exports was higher in May 2025 in comparison to April 2025, the year-on-year decline in May 2025 was due to higher statistical base. Among the major product groups, exports of ‘Aircraft, Spacecrafts and Parts’ slumped by 85 percent and that of ‘Ships, Boats and Floating Structures’ dropped by 25 percent year-on-year in May 2025 that mainly caused the decline in overall engineering exports. Country-wise analysis revealed that substantial decline in engineering exports to UAE and Saudi Arabia among the top exporting countries impacted overall engineering exports negatively.
| Trade Flow | Export figures(in $ billion) | Growth (%) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May-2024 | May-2025 | Apr-May 2024-25 | Apr-May 2025-26 | May-2025 over May-2024 | Apr-May 2024-25 over Apr-May 2025-26 | |
| Engineering exports | 9.97 | 9.89 | 18.52 | 19.40 | -0.82% | 4.77% |
| Overall merchandise exports | 39.59 | 38.73 | 74.89 | 77.19 | -2.17% | 3.07% |
| Share of engineering (%) | 25.18% | 25.53% | 24.72% | 25.13% | --- | --- |
| Service Exports | 29.61 | 32.39 | 59.79 | 65.24 | 9.39% | 9.12% |
Source : Compiled from data by DGCI&S and Quick Estimates published by the Government of India.
The monthly engineering figures for 2025-26 vis-à-vis 2024-25 are shown below as per the latest DGCI&S estimates:
US$ million
| Month | 2024-25 | 2025-26 | Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| April | 8547.61 | 9511.56 | 11.28 |
| May | 9968.45 | 9887.01 | -0.82 |
| April - May | 18516.06 | 19398.58 | 4.77 |
Source : DGCIS, Govt. of India
We now look at the export scenario of the top 25 nations that had highest demand for Indian engineering products during May 2025 over May 2024 as well as in cumulative terms during April-May 2025-26 vis-à-vis April-May 2024-25. The data clearly shows that top 25 countries contribute 75.5% of total engineering exports.
(US$ million)
| Countries | May-2024 | May-2025 | Growth (%) | April-May 2024-25 | April-May 2025-26 | Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U S A | 1659.09 | 1735.42 | 4.6% | 3077.07 | 3396.85 | 10.39% |
| U ARAB EMTS | 811.2 | 683.38 | -15.76% | 1203.73 | 1222.2 | 1.53% |
| GERMANY | 353.21 | 429.39 | 21.57% | 677.12 | 762.63 | 12.63% |
| U K | 349.59 | 388.34 | 11.09% | 650.57 | 723.64 | 11.23% |
| SINGAPORE | 283.74 | 366.5 | 29.17% | 659.37 | 865 | 31.19% |
| SAUDI ARAB | 587.01 | 337.11 | -42.57% | 1022.76 | 731.55 | -28.47% |
| MEXICO | 317.92 | 281.76 | -11.37% | 614.37 | 525.71 | -14.43% |
| ITALY | 253.97 | 274.69 | 8.16% | 563.75 | 542.99 | -3.68% |
| NEPAL | 174.41 | 226.94 | 30.12% | 346.16 | 434.51 | 25.52% |
| KOREA RP | 202.58 | 219.44 | 8.32% | 411.91 | 473.2 | 14.88% |
| NETHERLAND | 141.78 | 217.95 | 53.72% | 279.53 | 370.67 | 32.6% |
| BRAZIL | 199.87 | 216.08 | 8.11% | 365.44 | 427.74 | 17.05% |
| JAPAN | 197.66 | 215.07 | 8.81% | 371.32 | 446.4 | 20.22% |
| CHINA P RP | 218.59 | 207.36 | -5.14% | 429.04 | 373.03 | -13.06% |
| THAILAND | 164.59 | 191.6 | 16.41% | 317.18 | 350.34 | 10.46% |
| FRANCE | 153.29 | 190.77 | 24.45% | 306.18 | 351.66 | 14.85% |
| SOUTH AFRICA | 165.47 | 190.01 | 14.83% | 296.15 | 387.68 | 30.91% |
| BANGLADESH PR | 179.96 | 185.84 | 3.27% | 328.14 | 352.36 | 7.38% |
| TURKEY | 457.51 | 176.28 | -61.47% | 676.71 | 368.81 | -45.5% |
| INDONESIA | 153.46 | 173.36 | 12.97% | 272.25 | 294.43 | 8.15% |
| BELGIUM | 93.74 | 144.68 | 54.34% | 241.58 | 290.39 | 20.21% |
| AUSTRALIA | 103.11 | 131.25 | 27.29% | 195.96 | 262.77 | 34.1% |
| SPAIN | 115.58 | 117.28 | 1.47% | 212.8 | 244.18 | 14.74% |
| VIETNAM SOC REP | 130.26 | 116.51 | -10.56% | 246.72 | 233.91 | -5.19% |
| CANADA | 100.5 | 112.32 | 11.76% | 211.95 | 212.42 | 0.23% |
| Total engineering exports to top 25 countries | 7568.09 | 7529.31 | -0.51% | 13977.74 | 14645.05 | 4.77% |
| Total engineering exports | 9968.45 | 9887.01 | -0.82% | 18516.06 | 19398.58 | 4.77% |
Source : DGCI&S
The following table depicts region wise India’s engineering exports for April-May 2025 as compared to April-May 2024
(US$ million)
| Regions | May-2024 | May-2025 | Growth (%) | April-May 2024-25 | April-May 2025-26 | Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NORTH AMERICA | 2077.51 | 2129.5 | 2.5% | 3903.39 | 4134.97 | 5.93% |
| EUROPEAN UNION | 1561.55 | 1779.67 | 13.97% | 3158.62 | 3435.5 | 8.77% |
| WANA | 1904.2 | 1427.85 | -25.02% | 3045.03 | 2770.35 | -9.02% |
| ASEAN | 929.75 | 1011.86 | 8.83% | 1951.1 | 2166.1 | 11.02% |
| SSA( Sub Saharan Africa) | 616.78 | 765.34 | 24.09% | 1139.11 | 1452.94 | 27.55% |
| N E ASIA | 712.78 | 747.07 | 4.81% | 1383.83 | 1496.61 | 8.15% |
| OTHER EUROPE | 869.44 | 602.78 | -30.67% | 1448.84 | 1177.13 | -18.75% |
| LATIN AMERICA | 550.77 | 594.02 | 7.85% | 995.45 | 1160.01 | 16.53% |
| SOUTH ASIA | 499.21 | 549.32 | 10.04% | 975.95 | 1053.28 | 7.92% |
| OCEANIA | 114.57 | 145.31 | 26.83% | 220.07 | 288.63 | 31.16% |
| CIS | 130.54 | 125.29 | -4.03% | 292.5 | 243.42 | -16.78% |
| OTHERS | 1.36 | 1.66 | 22.17% | 2.14 | 12.3 | 474.23% |
Note : *Figures have been rounded off.
Source : DGCI&S **Myanmar has been included in ASEAN and not in South Asia, since ASEAN is a formal economic grouping.
In this section we look at the Engineering Panel wise exports for the month of May 2025 vis-à-vis May 2024 as well as the cumulative exports for April-May 2025-26 vis-à-vis April-May 2024-25. These are indicated in the tables below.
(US$ million)
| Product panels | May-2024 | May-2025 | Growth | April-May 2024-25 | April-May 2025-26 | Growth |
| IRON AND STEEL | 748.33 | 772.69 | 3.25% | 1592.13 | 1624.57 | 2.04% |
| PRODUCTS OF IRON AND STEEL | 820.44 | 877.18 | 6.92% | 1551.32 | 1648.27 | 6.25% |
| Sub Total | 1568.77 | 1649.87 | 5% | 3143.45 | 3272.84 | 4% |
Source : DGCI&S
US$ Million
| Product panels | May-2024 | May-2025 | Growth | April-May 2024-25 | April-May 2025-26 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminium and products made of Aluminium | 598.1 | 538.72 | -9.93% | 1127.67 | 1033.81 | -8.32% |
| Copper and products made of copper | 159.41 | 191.08 | 19.87% | 287.11 | 373.25 | 30.01% |
| Lead and products made of Lead | 84.31 | 81.67 | -3.13% | 147.45 | 157.65 | 6.92% |
| Nickel and products made of Nickel | 12.09 | 13.05 | 7.92% | 25.33 | 26.5 | 4.62% |
| Other Non Ferrous Metals and their products | 68.63 | 87.57 | 27.6% | 129.45 | 169.37 | 30.84% |
| Tin and products made of Tin | 2.3 | 2.26 | -1.5% | 3.52 | 3.98 | 13.24% |
| Sub Total | 924.83 | 914.36 | -1% | 1720.53 | 1764.57 | 3% |
Source : DGCI&S
US$ Million
| Product panels | May-2024 | May-2025 | Growth | April-May 2024-25 | April-May 2025-26 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air condition and Refrigeration Machinery and Parts, Industrial Furnaces, Water heaters and Centrifuges and Compressor | 147.03 | 189.68 | 29.01% | 283.74 | 377.35 | 32.99% |
| IC Engines and Parts | 301.95 | 364.86 | 20.84% | 589.18 | 690.2 | 17.15% |
| Industrial Machinery for dairy, agriculture, food processing, textiles, paper, chemicals, etc | 674.12 | 759.98 | 12.74% | 1359.58 | 1457.69 | 7.22% |
| Machine Tools | 68.52 | 62.93 | -8.16% | 128.48 | 129 | 0.4% |
| Machinery for ATMs, Injecting Moulding machinery, valves, etc | 233.81 | 252.69 | 8.08% | 440.17 | 494.95 | 12.45% |
| Nuclear Reactors, Industrial Boilers and Parts | 54.02 | 65.4 | 21.07% | 119.86 | 179.26 | 49.55% |
| Pumps of all types | 126.94 | 128.01 | 0.84% | 234.96 | 248.41 | 5.72% |
| Sub Total | 1606.39 | 1823.56 | 13.52% | 3155.97 | 3576.85 | 13.34% |
Source : DGCI&S
US$ Million
| Product panels | May-2024 | May-2025 | Growth | April-May 2024-25 | April-May 2025-26 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electric Machinery and Equipment | 1138.34 | 1303.45 | 14.5% | 2169.72 | 2495.71 | 15.02% |
Source : DGCI&S
US$ Million
| Product panels | May-2024 | May-2025 | Growth | April-May 2024-25 | April-May 2025-26 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUTO COMPONENTS/PARTS | 709.963 | 729.643 | 2.77% | 1315.204 | 1383.131 | 5.16% |
| AUTO TYRES AND TUBES | 281.477 | 283.205 | 0.61% | 534.694 | 540.098 | 1.01% |
| Motor Vehicle/cars | 723.872 | 859.759 | 18.77% | 1326.589 | 1682.283 | 26.81% |
| Two and Three Wheelers | 268.514 | 300.87 | 12.05% | 516.819 | 563.438 | 9.02% |
| Sub Total | 1983.827 | 2173.476 | 9.56% | 3693.306 | 4168.95 | 12.88% |
Source : DGCI&S
US$ Million
| Product panels | May-2024 | May-2025 | Growth | April-May 2024-25 | April-May 2025-26 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aircrafts, Spacecrafts and Parts | 858.52 | 125.63 | -85.37% | 1139.16 | 254.08 | -70.4% |
| Ships, Boats and Floating Structures | 524.01 | 392.34 | -25.13% | 789.16 | 901.36 | 72.01% |
| Sub Total | 1382.53 | 517.97 | -62.53% | 1928.32 | 1155.44 | -40.08% |
Source : DGCI&S
US$ Million
| Product panels | May-2024 | May-2025 | Growth | April-May 2024-25 | April-May 2025-26 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BICYCLE AND PARTS | 33.54 | 40.61 | 21.05% | 61.6 | 76.81 | 24.67% |
| Hand Tools, Cutting Tools and Implements made of Metals | 83.08 | 88.92 | 7.03% | 160.65 | 177.69 | 10.61% |
| OFFICE EQUIPMENTS | 24.03 | 31.82 | 32.4% | 42.61 | 56.1 | 31.65% |
| OTHER CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY | 265.03 | 311.53 | 17.55% | 507.95 | 580.24 | 14.23% |
| PRIME MICA AND MICA PRODUCTS | 2.64 | 3.46 | 31.18% | 4.88 | 6.31 | 29.48% |
| Railway Transport and Parts | 21.84 | 32.77 | 50.03% | 53 | 63.25 | 19.34% |
| PROJECT GOODS | 0.11 | 0.06 | -46.39% | 0.22 | 0.11 | -47.91% |
| OTHR RUBBER PRODCT EXCPT FOOTW | 148.41 | 160.78 | 8.33% | 285.3 | 308.3 | 8.06% |
Source : DGCI&S
We now analyze the performance of some of the important products for the fiscal April-May 2025-26 vis-à-vis April-May 2024-25. We have taken the major panels and computed the top importers to get an idea of the current trade pattern.
(US$ million)
| Product panels | Top 5 nations | April-May 2024-25 | April-May 2025-26 | Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron and Steel and Products made of Iron and Steel | ||||
| U S A | 532.37 | 677.34 | 27% | |
| U ARAB EMTS | 167.28 | 226.38 | 35% | |
| ITALY | 312.3 | 215.27 | -31% | |
| NEPAL | 116.25 | 160.97 | 38% | |
| BELGIUM | 130.83 | 142.15 | 9% | |
| Non-Ferrous Metals and Products made of Non-Ferrous Metals | ||||
| U S A | 234.16 | 297.28 | 27% | |
| KOREA RP | 177.6 | 186.74 | 5% | |
| SAUDI ARAB | 89.54 | 142.9 | 60% | |
| TAIWAN | 31.98 | 75.81 | 137% | |
| JAPAN | 76.51 | 75.3 | -2% | |
| Industrial Machinery | ||||
| U S A | 664.38 | 774.09 | 17% | |
| U ARAB EMTS | 144.32 | 210.01 | 46% | |
| GERMANY | 158.41 | 155.44 | -2% | |
| CHINA P RP | 161.17 | 141.77 | -12% | |
| THAILAND | 124.76 | 140.82 | 13% | |
| Electrical Machinery | ||||
| U S A | 455.85 | 500.76 | 10% | |
| U K | 161.95 | 263.01 | 62% | |
| SINGAPORE | 203.8 | 250.89 | 23% | |
| GERMANY | 121.25 | 166.18 | 37% | |
| KOREA RP | 90.93 | 138.82 | 53% | |
| Automobiles | ||||
| U S A | 403.92 | 414.87 | 3% | |
| MEXICO | 335.27 | 302.83 | -10% | |
| SAUDI ARAB | 257.28 | 262.86 | 2% | |
| SOUTH AFRICA | 185.49 | 256.89 | 38% | |
| U ARAB EMTS | 128 | 194.42 | 52% | |
| Aircrafts and Spacecraft parts and products | ||||
| U S A | 74.66 | 70.98 | -5% | |
| FRANCE | 36.32 | 38.98 | 7% | |
| U K | 25.49 | 27 | 6% | |
| SINGAPORE | 8.82 | 17.47 | 98% | |
| GERMANY | 13.81 | 13.68 | -1% | |
| Ships Boats and Floating products and parts | ||||
| SINGAPORE | 234.79 | 446.02 | 90% | |
| U ARAB EMTS | 305.93 | 269.06 | -12% | |
| OMAN | 0.06 | 54.32 | 98269% | |
| TOGO | 0 | 46.85 | N/A | |
| INDONESIA | 12.01 | 38.07 | 217% | |
| Project Goods | ||||
| SAUDI ARAB | 0 | 0.02 | 1062% | |
| FRANCE | 0.01 | 0.02 | 222% | |
| U S A | 0.06 | 0.02 | -70% | |
| CONGO D. REP. | 0 | 0.01 | N/A | |
| AUSTRALIA | 0 | 0.01 | N/A | |
| Other Rubber Product Except Footwear | ||||
| U S A | 65.86 | 70.67 | 7% | |
| GERMANY | 19.38 | 20.12 | 4% | |
| CHINA P RP | 11.29 | 12.77 | 13% | |
| U ARAB EMTS | 10.39 | 12.58 | 21% | |
| NETHERLAND | 9.48 | 10.42 | 10% | |
| Other engineering products | ||||
| U S A | 152.07 | 170.33 | 12% | |
| U ARAB EMTS | 39 | 56.06 | 44% | |
| U K | 47.34 | 51.89 | 10% | |
| GHANA | 27.73 | 50.63 | 83% | |
| BRAZIL | 24.62 | 33.4 | 36% |
Source : DGCI&S
State wise engineering export performance
State wise engineering export performance- Data as on 2024-25
( Note: Current fiscal 2025-26 data not yet updated as per Niryat Portal)
The table below indicates the exports from top Indian states. It is evident from the table that almost 91.5% of India’s exports is contributed by the listed 12 states. Within this almost 50 percent of exports is done by Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat together.
(US$ million)
| Top States | Cumulative Export April-March 2025-26 | Share % | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maharashtra | 22546.4 | 19.65% | 91.5% share covered by top 12 states |
| Tamil Nadu | 18108.6 | 15.78% | |
| Gujarat | 16590.5 | 14.46% | |
| Telangana | 7536.2 | 6.57% | |
| Karnataka | 7277.3 | 6.34% | |
| Haryana | 6764.5 | 5.9% | |
| Odisha | 5910.1 | 5.15% | |
| Delhi | 4684.5 | 4.08% | |
| Uttar Pradesh | 4348.7 | 3.79% | |
| Andhra Pradesh | 4319.4 | 3.77% | |
| West Bengal | 3523.7 | 3.07% | |
| Rajasthan | 3375.7 | 2.94% | |
| Punjab | 2661.3 | 2.32% | |
| Madhya Pradesh | 2013.1 | 1.75% | |
| Daman & Diu And Dadra & Nagar Haveli | 1242 | 1.08% | |
| Kerala | 840.9 | 0.73% | |
| Jharkhand | 807.2 | 0.7% | |
| Chhattisgarh | 754.6 | 0.66% | |
| Uttarakhand | 549.2 | 0.48% | |
| Goa | 405.8 | 0.35% | |
| Puducherry | 180.2 | 0.16% | |
| Himachal Pradesh | 124.8 | 0.11% | |
| Bihar | 61.1 | 0.05% | |
| Chandigarh | 51.7 | 0.05% | |
| Assam | 19.4 | 0.02% | |
| Tripura | 10.9 | 0.01% | |
| Jammu & Kashmir | 10.2 | 0.01% | |
| Arunachal Pradesh | 1.8 | 0% | |
| Sikkim | 1 | 0% | |
| Manipur | 0.8 | 0% | |
| Lakshadweep | 0.1 | 0% | |
| Andaman & Nicobar | 0.1 | 0% | |
| Meghalaya | 0.1 | 0% | |
| Nagaland | 0 | 0% | |
| Ladakh | 0 | 0% | |
| Mizoram | 0 | 0% |
Source : DGCI&S
In terms of region, western region which includes industrial states like Maharashtra and Gujarat is the front runner in terms of exports with 34.1 percent share. Tamil Nadu from the Southern Region has retained its export performance and it ranked second after Maharashtra, while Gujarat and Telengana ranked third and fourth during April-March 2024-25.
Note : DGCI&S state wise data available till May-2025
Value in US$ million
| Region | May-2024($Mn) | May-2025($Mn) | Growth % | Apr-May 2024-25($Mn) | Apr-May 2025-26 ($Mn) | Growth % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WESTERN REGION | 4070.4 | 4143.4 | 1.79% | 41415.4 | 42797.8 | 3.34% |
| SOUTHERN REGION | 3884.2 | 3310.4 | -14.77% | 33012.2 | 38262.7 | 15.9% |
| EASTERN REGION | 1096.1 | 989.8 | -9.7% | 12236.7 | 11089.8 | -9.37% |
| NORTHERN REGION | 2235 | 432.9 | -80.63% | 22650.9 | 22571.6 | -0.35% |
| Grand Total | 11285.7 | 8876.5 | -21.35% | 109315.2 | 114721.9 | 4.95% |
Engineering forms a considerable part of the broader manufacturing sector and the share of engineering production in overall manufacturing output is quite significant. As exports generally come from what is produced within a country, some correlation between manufacturing production growth and engineering export growth should exist. We briefly look at the trend in manufacturing growth as also engineering export growth to see if they move in tandem. It may be mentioned that manufacturing has 77.63% weightage in India’s industrial production.
Engineering export growth and manufacturing output growth moved in the same direction in as many as nine out of twelve months in each of the fiscal years 2019-20 and 2020-21. During fiscal 2021-22, engineering export growth and manufacturing growth moved in the same direction in seven out of twelve months while in each of fiscal 2022-23 and 2023-24, as many as 10 out of 12 months saw engineering exports and manufacturing output moved in the same direction. In 2024-25, both moved in the same direction in eight out of 12 months.
The first month of fiscal 2025-26 saw engineering export growth surged to double digit while manufacturing growth decelerated.
The link between these two may not be established in one or two months, but a positive correlation may be seen if medium to long term trend is considered.
| Months/ Year | Engg. Export Growth (%) | Manufacturing Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | -63.05 | -66.6 |
| May 2020 | -22.17 | -37.8 |
| June 2020 | -5.18 | -17.0 |
| July 2020 | 10.56 | -11.4 |
| August 2020 | -7.01 | -7.6 |
| September 2020 | 4.09 | 0.4 |
| October 2020 | -5.01 | 4.5 |
| November 2020 | -8.37 | -1.6 |
| December 2020 | -0.93 | 2.7 |
| January 2021 | 16.66 | -0.9 |
| February 2021 | -4.94 | -3.4 |
| March 2021 | 67.75 | 28.3 |
| April 2021 | 236.85 | 196.0 |
| May 2021 | 50.21 | 32.1 |
| June 2021 | 51.00 | 13.2 |
| July 2021 | 42.57 | 10.5 |
| August 2021 | 58.63 | 11.1 |
| September 2021 | 35.11 | 4.3 |
| October 2021 | 51.76 | 3.3 |
| November 2021 | 37.28 | 0.3 |
| December 2021 | 47.42 | 0.6 |
| January 2022 | 25.63 | 1.9 |
| February 2022 | 35.49 | 0.2 |
| March 2022 | 19.72 | 1.4 |
| April 2022 | 18.30 | 5.6 |
| May 2022 | 11.45 | 20.6 |
| June 2022 | 3.01 | 13.0 |
| July 2022 | -0.03 | 3.2 |
| August 2022 | -12.64 | -0.5 |
| September 2022 | -11.39 | 2.0 |
| October 2022 | -19.68 | -5.8 |
| November 2022 | 0.09 | 6.7 |
| December 2022 | -11.60 | 3.6 |
| January 2023 | -9.76 | 4.0 |
| February 2023 | -9.73 | 5.6 |
| March 2023 | -7.49 | 0.5 |
| April 2023 | -7.27 | 5.5 |
| May 2023 | -4.13 | 6.3 |
| June 2023 | -10.94 | 3.5 |
| July 2023 | -6.65 | 5.0 |
| August 2023 | 7.83 | 9.3 |
| September 2023 | 6.81 | 4.5 |
| October 2023 | 7.20 | N A |
| November 2023 | -3.48 | 1.2 |
| December 2023 | 9.82 | 4.5 |
| January 2024 | 4.21 | 3.6 |
| February 2024 | 15.9 | 5.0 |
| March 2024 | 10.66 | N A |
| April 2024 | -4.49 | 3.9 |
| May 2024 | 7.41 | 4.6 |
| June 2024 | 10.27 | N A |
| July 2024 | 3.66 | 4.6 |
| August 2024 | 4.26 | 1.0 |
| September 2024 | 9.44 | 3.9 |
| October 2024 | 38.39 | 4.1 |
| November 2024 | 13.72 | 5.5 |
| December 2024 | 8.33 | 3.4 |
| January 2025 | 7.46 | 5.5 |
| February 2025 | -8.64 | 2.9 |
| April 2025 | -3.92 | 3.0 |
Source :Department of Commerce and CSO
How did the exchange rate fare during May 2025 and what was the recent trend in Re-Dollar movement? In order to get a clearer picture of the recent Re-Dollar trend, not only we took the exchange rate of May 2025, but also considered monthly average exchange rate of Rupee vis-à-vis the US Dollar for each month of fiscal 2023-24 and 2024-25 as per the latest data published, as mere one-month figure does not reflect any trend. The following two tables clearly depicts the short-term trend:
(Monthly Average Rate of FBIL has been considered)
Source : FBIL
(As per latest data released by FBIL)
| Monthly Average Exchange Rate (1 USD to INR) | Year-on-Year Change (%) | Direction | Month-on-Month Change (%) | Direction | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | 2024-25 | 2025-26 | ||||
| April | 83.41 | 85.56 | 2.58 | Depreciation | -1.25 | Appreciation |
| May | 83.39 | 85.19 | 2.16 | Depreciation | -0.43 | Appreciation |
Rupee appreciated for the third straight month to May 2025 on a month-on-month basis but continued to depreciate on a year-on-year basis: INR appreciated vis-à-vis the US Dollar by 0.43 percent in May 2025 over the previous month as reciprocal tariff imposed by the USA has created panic about the US economic prospect in the short term leading to weakening of dollar. On a year-on-year basis however, rupee continued to weaken.
Outlook: According to a report by Bank of Baroda, the Indian rupee is expected to strengthen against the US Dollar in the near term due to imporved domestic fundamental with renewed inward investmnts by foreign instituions suppoted by favourable global trends like weak dollar and falling oil prices. The report projects rupee to trade in the range of 84 – 85 per US Dollar in the near trem but any escalation in US-China trade relation may pose significant threat to rupee.
(As per latest data released by FBIL)
| Monthly Average Exchange Rate (1 USD to INR) | Year-on-Year Change (%) | Direction | Month-on-Month Change (%) | Direction | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | 2023-24 | 2024-25 | ||||
| April | 82.02 | 83.41 | 1.69 | Depreciation | 0.49 | Depreciation |
| May | 82.34 | 83.39 | 1.28 | Depreciation | -0.02 | Appreciation |
| June | 82.23 | 83.47 | 1.51 | Depreciation | 0.10 | Depreciation |
| July | 82.15 | 83.59 | 1.75 | Depreciation | 0.14 | Depreciation |
| August | 82.79 | 83.89 | 1.33 | Depreciation | 0.36 | Depreciation |
| September | 83.05 | 83.81 | 0.92 | Depreciation | -0.10 | Depreciation |
| October | 83.24 | 84.02 | 0.94 | Depreciation | 0.25 | Depreciation |
| November | 83.30 | 84.36 | 1.27 | Depreciation | 0.40 | Depreciation |
| December | 83.28 | 84.99 | 2.05 | Depreciation | 0.75 | Depreciation |
| January | 83.14 | 86.27 | 3.76 | Depreciation | 1.51 | Depreciation |
| February | 82.96 | 87.05 | 4.93 | Depreciation | 0.90 | Depreciation |
| March | 83.00 | 86.64 | 4.39 | Depreciation | -0.47 | Appreciation |
Source : FBIL, EEPC Research
We now present the trend in two-way yearly trade for the engineering sector for the 2025-26 depicted in the table below:
(US$ million)
| Trade Flow | April | May |
|---|---|---|
| Engineering Export | 9.5 | 9.9 |
| Engineering Import | 13.4 | 13.8 |
| Trade Balance | -3.9 | -3.9 |
Source : DGCI&S
After a remarkable growth phase, India’s engineering exports experienced a marginal decline of 0.82% for the first time in May 2025. During this period India’s overall merchandise exports also declined by more than 2%. While India’s engineering exports to US and EU grew, significant decline was noted in UAE, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, which are significant markets for India and feature prominently in India’s top 25 destinations. The decline can be explained by the growing geo-political tensions in the area and the rising threat to logistics. Exports of aluminium and its products was also hit due to increased competition in the ASEAN region. Decline was also noted in exports of metals like zonc and led and aircrafts, scpacecrafts and parts.
The global trade is currently going through a phase of uncertainty. The Euroean Central Bank has revised the global trade growth down by 0.4% to reach 3.1%. They have also revised down the global trade growth in 2026 to 1.7% after which it is expected to grow. The reasons behind this dismal trade performance is explained by the growing geopolitical tensions across Middle East and West Asia, policy uncertainty in the US and protectioist measures by some of the major markets. In these circumatsnces, India has to adopt a cautious approach. The guidance and support from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry would be crucial for the industry especially in developing new technologies in upcoming areas including rare earth magnets and exploring new markets.
Monthly Trend
Highlights
Product Panels
Impact of Exchange Rate
Conclude