Indian engineering exports continued its growth run for the third month in a row to July 2024 albeit a lower 3.66% year-on-year growth as against over 10% in June 2024. Cumulative exports during Apr-Jul 2024 also recorded 4.18% growth over the same period last fiscal. Share of engineering in overall merchandise exports was at an impressive 26.6% in July 2024 and 25.6% on a cumulative basis. Growth in engineering exports in July 2024 was attributed to decent rise in shipments of Electrical machinery, automobile and auto components, construction machineries including the cranes, lifts and winches, etc.
| Trade Flow | Export figures(in $ billion) | Growth (%) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul-2023 | Jul-2024 | Apr-Jul 2023-24 | Apr-Jul 2024-25 | Jul-2024 over Jul-2023 | Apr-Jul 2023-24 over Apr-Jul 2024-25 | |
| Engineering exports | 8.08 | 11.19 | 61.50 | 66.59 | 38.53% | 8.27% |
| Overall merchandise exports | 33.43 | 39.20 | 244.51 | 252.28 | 17.23% | 3.18% |
| Share of engineering (%) | 24.16% | 28.72% | 25.15% | 26.75% | --- | --- |
| Service Exports | 28.05 | 34.02/td> | 191.97 | 215.98 | 21.28% | 12.51% |
Source : Compiled from data by DGCI&S and Quick Estimates published by the Government of India
Observation: Excluding the export of iron and steel, engineering exports recorded a much higher growth both on a monthly as well as cumulative basis as shown in the table above. Exports of Iron and Steel conceded nearly 27 percent year-on-year decline in July 2024 and 31.6 percent year-on-year decline during April-July 2024-25.
| Trade Flow | Export in Jul-2023 | Export in Jul-2024 | Growth (%) | Exports in Apr-Jul 2023-24 | Exports in Apr-Jul 2024-25 | Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall engineering exports | 8078.48 | 11190.84 | 38.53 | 61499.68 | 66585.89 | 8.27 |
| Engineering exports excluding Iron and Steel | 7439.92 | 10364.23 | 39.31 | 54629.95 | 61152.46 | 11.94 |
Source : DGCI&S, Govt. of India
The monthly engineering figures for 2024-25 vis-à-vis 2023-24 are shown below as per the latest DGCI&S estimates:
US$ million
| Month | 2023-24 | 2024-25 | Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| April | 8949.36 | 8366.65 | -6.51 |
| May | 9300.62 | 9818 | 5.56 |
| June | 8515.72 | 9193.63 | 7.96 |
| April-June | 26765.71 | 27378.28 | 2.29 |
| July | 8720.3 | 8959.5 | 2.74 |
| August | 9048.65 | 9332.19 | 3.13 |
| September | 8886.54 | 9725.08 | 9.44 |
| July-September | 26655.49 | 28016.78 | 5.11 |
| October | 8078.48 | 11190.84 | 38.53 |
| April-October | 61499.68 | 66585.89 | 8.27 |
Source : DGCIS, Govt. of India
We now look at the export scenario of the top 25 nations that had highest demand for Indian engineering products during July 2024 over July 2023 as well as in cumulative terms during April-July 2024-25 vis-à-vis April-July 2023-24. The data clearly shows that top 25 countries contribute 76.3% of total engineering exports.
(US$ million)
| Countries | Jul-2023 | Jul-2024 | Growth (%) | April-October 2023-24 | April-October 2024-25 | Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U S A | 1435.97 | 1551.56 | 8.05% | 8734.23 | 9278.41 | 6.23% |
| U ARAB EMTS | 448.36 | 672.13 | 49.91% | 2695.4 | 3902.86 | 44.8% |
| SAUDI ARAB | 455.84 | 388.7 | -14.73% | 2208.08 | 2613.55 | 18.36% |
| FRANCE | 186.8 | 384.51 | 105.84% | 1075.47 | 1155.04 | 7.4% |
| GERMANY | 336.18 | 361.21 | 7.44% | 2089.78 | 2087.09 | -0.13% |
| U K | 265.26 | 324.96 | 22.51% | 1815.85 | 1942.28 | 6.96% |
| MEXICO | 214.83 | 300.88 | 40.06% | 1583.54 | 1892.07 | 19.48% |
| SINGAPORE | 348.31 | 288.49 | -17.18% | 1705.92 | 1960.99 | 14.95% |
| SOUTH AFRICA | 202.92 | 277.86 | 36.93% | 1152.07 | 1172.39 | 1.76% |
| CHINA P RP | 260.24 | 264.2 | 1.52% | 1228.6 | 1342.8 | 9.3% |
| JAPAN | 170.09 | 256.99 | 51.09% | 888.43 | 1165 | 31.13% |
| ITALY | 224.78 | 202.48 | -9.92% | 1962.85 | 1487.76 | -24.2% |
| TURKEY | 272.59 | 199.7 | -26.74% | 1453.33 | 1663.02 | 14.43% |
| NEPAL | 175.36 | 198.94 | 13.44% | 1175.27 | 1095.67 | -6.77% |
| KOREA RP | 174.53 | 192.73 | 10.43% | 1400.15 | 1286.41 | -8.12% |
| BRAZIL | 149.02 | 192.58 | 29.23% | 1004.32 | 1097.55 | 9.28% |
| THAILAND | 162.53 | 179.65 | 10.54% | 914.08 | 998.35 | 9.22% |
| BANGLADESH PR | 169.72 | 175.95 | 3.67% | 1136.18 | 1024.23 | -9.85% |
| OMAN | 39.93 | 174.57 | 337.25% | 422.9 | 465.62 | 10.1% |
| NETHERLAND | 163.97 | 151.46 | -7.63% | 1038.29 | 946.29 | -8.86% |
| SPAIN | 93.86 | 150.29 | 60.12% | 787.52 | 694.47 | -11.82% |
| INDONESIA | 285.71 | 142.98 | -49.96% | 1577.59 | 1087.75 | -31.05% |
| BELGIUM | 117.03 | 138.35 | 18.22% | 816.13 | 714.15 | -12.5% |
| VIETNAM SOC REP | 108.12 | 121.55 | 12.42% | 577.96 | 698.32 | 20.82% |
| MALAYSIA | 178.31 | 114.61 | -35.73% | 911.4 | 724.68 | -20.49% |
| Total engineering exports to top 25 countries | 6640.28 | 7407.33 | 11.55% | 40355.33 | 42496.75 | 5.31% |
| Total engineering exports | 8886.54 | 9824.33 | 10.55% | 53421.2 | 56226.95 | 5.25% |
Source : DGCI&S
The following table depicts region wise India’s engineering exports for April-July 2024 as opposed to April-July 2023.
In this section we look at the Engineering Panel wise exports for the month of July 2024 vis-à-vis July 2023 as well as the cumulative exports for April-July 2024-25 vis-à-vis April-July 2023-24. These are indicated in the tables below.
(US$ million)
| Regions | Jul-2023 | Jul-2024 | Growth (%) | April-October 2023-24 | April-October 2024-25 | Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NORTH AMERICA | 1741.02 | 1949.7 | 11.99% | 10901.79 | 11778.35 | 8.04% |
| EUROPEAN UNION | 1488.12 | 1910.94 | 28.41% | 10081.31 | 9701.71 | -3.77% |
| WANA | 1271.12 | 1614.29 | 27% | 7339.05 | 9108.04 | 24.1% |
| ASEAN | 1146.77 | 907.82 | -20.84% | 6104.7 | 5979.61 | -2.05% |
| SSA( Sub Saharan Africa) | 696.39 | 794.8 | 14.13% | 4037.47 | 3947.24 | -2.23% |
| N E ASIA | 683.21 | 770.41 | 12.76% | 3987.81 | 4277.14 | 7.26% |
| OTHER EUROPE | 572.12 | 556.49 | -2.73% | 3459.47 | 3843.53 | 11.1% |
| SOUTH ASIA | 543.35 | 521.49 | -4.02% | 2999.9 | 3040.34 | 1.35% |
| LATIN AMERICA | 502.66 | 510 | 1.46% | 2927.36 | 2927.19 | -0.01% |
| CIS | 120.11 | 164.24 | 36.74% | 810.96 | 919.09 | 13.33% |
| OCEANIA | 119.47 | 118.61 | -0.72% | 758.73 | 689.03 | -9.19% |
| OTHERS | 2.2 | 5.54 | 151.79% | 12.65 | 15.69 | 23.96% |
Note : *Figures have been rounded off.
Source : DGCI&S **Myanmar has been included in ASEAN and not in South Asia, since ASEAN is a formal economic grouping.
(US$ million)
| Product panels | October-2023 | October-2024 | Growth | April-October 2023-24 | April-October 2024-25 | Growth |
| IRON AND STEEL | 755.3 | 739.61 | -2.08% | 6231.17 | 4606.82 | -26.07% |
| PRODUCTS OF IRON AND STEEL | 849.17 | 827.52 | -2.55% | 4885.05 | 4806.84 | -1.6% |
| Sub Total | 1604.47 | 1567.13 | -2% | 11116.23 | 9413.66 | -15% |
Source : DGCI&S
US$ Million
| Product panels | October-2023 | October-2024 | Growth | April-October 2023-24 | April-October 2024-25 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminium and products made of Aluminium | 565.01 | 526.17 | -6.87% | 3618.22 | 3249.18 | -10.2% |
| Copper and products made of copper | 271.08 | 246.66 | -9.01% | 1187.07 | 1053.17 | -11.28% |
| Lead and products made of Lead | 76.25 | 64.4 | -15.53% | 308.18 | 421.53 | 36.78% |
| Nickel and products made of Nickel | 14.08 | 15.15 | 7.61% | 87.33 | 87.68 | 0.4% |
| Other Non Ferrous Metals and their products | 62.38 | 78.46 | 25.78% | 367.85 | 424.1 | 15.29% |
| Tin and products made of Tin | 1.44 | 2.95 | 105.3% | 7.97 | 11.3 | 41.72% |
| Zinc and products made of zinc | 41.47 | 58 | 39.87% | 390.18 | 347.34 | -10.98% |
| Sub Total | 1031.71 | 991.8 | -4% | 5966.8 | 5594.3 | -6% |
Source : DGCI&S
US$ Million
| Product panels | October-2023 | October-2024 | Growth | April-October 2023-24 | April-October 2024-25 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air condition and Refrigeration Machinery and Parts, Industrial Furnaces, Water heaters and Centrifuges and Compressor | 145.11 | 170.43 | 17.44% | 831.31 | 909.39 | 9.39% |
| IC Engines and Parts | 316.39 | 324.03 | 2.41% | 1852.05 | 1844.39 | -0.41% |
| Industrial Machinery for dairy, agriculture, food processing, textiles, paper, chemicals, etc | 672.49 | 701.88 | 4.37% | 3976.53 | 4066.78 | 2.27% |
| Machine Tools | 58.61 | 61.09 | 4.22% | 365.14 | 392.75 | 7.56% |
| Machinery for ATMs, Injecting Moulding machinery, valves, etc | 202.41 | 240.9 | 19.02% | 1232.08 | 1361.01 | 10.46% |
| Nuclear Reactors, Industrial Boilers and Parts | 65.01 | 89.15 | 37.13% | 368.08 | 406.76 | 10.51% |
| Pumps of all types | 110.14 | 136.23 | 23.68% | 704.58 | 759.17 | 7.75% |
| Sub Total | 1570.18 | 1723.71 | 9.78% | 9329.77 | 9740.25 | 4.4% |
Source : DGCI&S
US$ Million
| Product panels | October-2023 | October-2024 | Growth | April-October 2023-24 | April-October 2024-25 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electric Machinery and Equipment | 1054.87 | 1281.13 | 21.45% | 6203.2 | 6975.32 | 12.45% |
Source : DGCI&S
US$ Million
| Product panels | October-2023 | October-2024 | Growth | April-October 2023-24 | April-October 2024-25 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUTO COMPONENTS/PARTS | 642.025 | 688.684 | 7.27% | 3768.568 | 4089.741 | 8.52% |
| AUTO TYRES AND TUBES | 226.942 | 256.807 | 13.16% | 1366.722 | 1511.515 | 10.59% |
| Motor Vehicle/cars | 762.562 | 788.897 | 3.45% | 4270.925 | 4397.943 | 2.97% |
| Two and Three Wheelers | 203.818 | 266.174 | 30.59% | 1313.806 | 1545.374 | 17.63% |
| Sub Total | 1835.348 | 2000.562 | 9% | 10720.022 | 11544.573 | 7.69% |
Source : DGCI&S
US$ Million
| Product panels | October-2023 | October-2024 | Growth | April-October 2023-24 | April-October 2024-25 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aircrafts, Spacecrafts and Parts | 104.55 | 710.58 | 579.68% | 676.7 | 2970.85 | 2741.64% |
| Ships, Boats and Floating Structures | 467 | 169.72 | -63.66% | 2165.62 | 2171.11 | 364.9% |
| Sub Total | 571.55 | 880.3 | 54.02% | 2842.32 | 5141.96 | 80.91% |
Source : DGCI&S
US$ Million
| Product panels | October-2023 | October-2024 | Growth | April-October 2023-24 | April-October 2024-25 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BICYCLE AND PARTS | 30.53 | 32.67 | 7.02% | 183.02 | 186.37 | 1.83% |
| Hand Tools, Cutting Tools and Implements made of Metals | 80.06 | 89.18 | 11.4% | 464.13 | 503.06 | 8.39% |
| Medical and Scientific Instruments | 190.03 | 257.74 | 35.63% | 1190.48 | 1337.69 | 12.37% |
| OFFICE EQUIPMENTS | 19.43 | 22.26 | 14.59% | 165.96 | 140.73 | -15.2% |
| OTHER CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY | 250.82 | 268.78 | 7.16% | 1444.14 | 1526.76 | 5.72% |
| OTHER MISC. ITEMS | 387.34 | 434.19 | 12.1% | 2325.1 | 2515.18 | 8.18% |
| PRIME MICA AND MICA PRODUCTS | 4.73 | 2.57 | -45.77% | 20.76 | 14.96 | -27.92% |
| Railway Transport and Parts | 23.35 | 22.23 | -4.81% | 148.78 | 153.67 | 3.29% |
| PROJECT GOODS | 0.2 | 0.25 | 27.06% | 1.95 | 1.15 | -41.33% |
| OTHR RUBBER PRODCT EXCPT FOOTW | 134.61 | 142.57 | 5.92% | 821.13 | 875.15 | 6.58% |
Source : DGCI&S
(US$ million)
| Product panels | Top 5 nations | April-October 2023-24 | April-October 2024-25 | Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron and Steel and Products made of Iron and Steel | ||||
| U S A | 1646.41 | 1647.12 | 0% | |
| ITALY | 1091.3 | 715.44 | -34% | |
| U ARAB EMTS | 633.8 | 670.92 | 6% | |
| U K | 387.43 | 445.12 | 15% | |
| NEPAL | 546.61 | 406.81 | -26% | |
| Non-Ferrous Metals and Products made of Non-Ferrous Metals | ||||
| U S A | 724.91 | 710.06 | -2% | |
| KOREA RP | 647.79 | 473.42 | -27% | |
| TURKEY | 121.8 | 408.55 | 235% | |
| SAUDI ARAB | 545.14 | 345.23 | -37% | |
| CHINA P RP | 205.52 | 305.09 | 48% | |
| Industrial Machinery | ||||
| U S A | 1848.45 | 2045 | 11% | |
| GERMANY | 520.42 | 463.09 | -11% | |
| U ARAB EMTS | 379.13 | 448.43 | 18% | |
| CHINA P RP | 360.89 | 424.66 | 18% | |
| THAILAND | 405.5 | 391.72 | -3% | |
| Electrical Machinery | ||||
| U S A | 1223.51 | 1352.57 | 11% | |
| SINGAPORE | 523.28 | 787.66 | 51% | |
| U K | 499.87 | 531.65 | 6% | |
| GERMANY | 366.32 | 430.08 | 17% | |
| KOREA RP | 200.88 | 361.41 | 80% | |
| Automobiles | ||||
| U S A | 1199.15 | 1200.63 | 0% | |
| MEXICO | 794.9 | 991.25 | 25% | |
| SAUDI ARAB | 828.84 | 836.88 | 1% | |
| SOUTH AFRICA | 745.55 | 767.42 | 3% | |
| U ARAB EMTS | 414.58 | 524.69 | 27% | |
| Aircrafts and Spacecraft parts and products | ||||
| U ARAB EMTS | 9.26 | 697.11 | 7429% | |
| SAUDI ARAB | 1.04 | 352.52 | 33656% | |
| FRANCE | 87.7 | 326.27 | 272% | |
| U S A | 227.52 | 214 | -6% | |
| TURKEY | 44.92 | 189.94 | 323% | |
| Ships Boats and Floating products and parts | ||||
| U ARAB EMTS | 485.69 | 737.63 | 52% | |
| SINGAPORE | 606.36 | 591.36 | -2% | |
| U S A | 52.6 | 250.35 | 376% | |
| INDONESIA | 556.18 | 232.68 | -58% | |
| SRI LANKA DSR | 175.32 | 104.62 | -40% | |
| Project Goods | ||||
| KAZAKHSTAN | 0 | 0.35 | N/A | |
| U S A | 0.12 | 0.31 | 148% | |
| BHUTAN | 0.02 | 0.12 | 489% | |
| CONGO P REP | 0 | 0.06 | N/A | |
| NEPAL | 0.03 | 0.05 | 56% | |
| Other Rubber Product Except Footwear | ||||
| U S A | 183.26 | 201.72 | 10% | |
| GERMANY | 60.4 | 56.67 | -6% | |
| U ARAB EMTS | 28.75 | 37.01 | 29% | |
| CHINA P RP | 29.25 | 31.64 | 8% | |
| NETHERLAND | 24.09 | 31.44 | 31% | |
| Other engineering products | ||||
| U S A | 1424.47 | 1454.93 | 2% | |
| GERMANY | 287.88 | 315.63 | 10% | |
| U K | 294.3 | 311.08 | 6% | |
| U ARAB EMTS | 259.23 | 283.45 | 9% | |
| SAUDI ARAB | 203.43 | 212.25 | 4% |
Source : DGCI&S
State wise engineering export performance
The table below indicates the exports from top Indian states. It is evident from the table that almost 93 % of India’s exports is contributed by the listed 12 states. Within this almost 54.7 percent of exports is done by Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat together.
(US$ million)
| Top States | Cumulative Export April-September 2024-25 | Share % | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maharashtra | 11155 | 22.89% | 93.7% share covered by top 12 states |
| Tamil Nadu | 8702.65 | 17.86% | |
| Gujarat | 7497.04 | 15.39% | |
| Karnataka | 3439.74 | 7.06% | |
| Telangana | 3228.76 | 6.63% | |
| Odisha | 2812.3 | 5.77% | |
| Andhra Pradesh | 2542.49 | 5.22% | |
| Uttar Pradesh | 2147.93 | 4.41% | |
| West Bengal | 1682.27 | 3.45% | |
| Madhya Pradesh | 942.22 | 1.93% | |
| Rajasthan | 757.42 | 1.55% | |
| Haryana | 749.12 | 1.54% | |
| Daman & Diu And Dadra & Nagar Haveli | 597.66 | 1.23% | |
| Delhi | 507.99 | 1.04% | |
| Kerala | 427.42 | 0.88% | |
| Chhattisgarh | 414.43 | 0.85% | |
| Jharkhand | 390.97 | 0.8% | |
| Punjab | 328.17 | 0.67% | |
| Goa | 184.65 | 0.38% | |
| Puducherry | 94.63 | 0.19% | |
| Uttarakhand | 42.67 | 0.09% | |
| Bihar | 33.49 | 0.07% | |
| Himachal Pradesh | 12.09 | 0.02% | |
| Tripura | 10.94 | 0.02% | |
| Assam | 9.57 | 0.02% | |
| Chandigarh | 7.61 | 0.02% | |
| Arunachal Pradesh | 1.61 | 0% | |
| Jammu & Kashmir | 1.27 | 0% | |
| Manipur | 0.56 | 0% | |
| Sikkim | 0.53 | 0% | |
| Meghalaya | 0.09 | 0% | |
| Andaman & Nicobar | 0.08 | 0% | |
| Lakshadweep | 0.06 | 0% | |
| Ladakh | 0 | 0% | |
| Mizoram | 0 | 0% | |
| Nagaland | 0 | 0% |
Source : DGCI&S
In terms of region, western region which includes industrial states like Maharashtra and Gujarat is the front runner in terms of exports with 37.7 percent share. Tamil Nadu from the Southern Region has improved its export performance and it ranked second after Maharashtra, while Gujarat and Karnataka ranked third and fourth during April-June 2024-25.
Note : DGCI&S state wise data available till February-2024
Value in US$ million
| Region | Jul-2023($Mn) | Jul-2024($Mn) | Growth % | Apr-Jul 2023-24($Mn) | Apr-Jul 2024-25 ($Mn) | Growth % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WESTERN REGION | 3235.41 | 3477.85 | 7.49% | 20242.16 | 20376.57 | 0.66% |
| SOUTHERN REGION | 3025.34 | 3323.9 | 9.87% | 15987.11 | 18435.75 | 15.32% |
| EASTERN REGION | 893.46 | 906.48 | 1.46% | 6117.73 | 5356.31 | -12.45% |
| NORTHERN REGION | 1764.21 | 588.86 | -66.62% | 11187.05 | 4554.8 | -59.29% |
| Grand Total | 8918.42 | 8297.09 | -6.97% | 53534.05 | 48723.43 | -8.99% |
Engineering sector is an important component of the broader manufacturing sector and the share of engineering production in overall manufacturing output is quite significant. As exports generally come from what is produced within a country, some correlation between manufacturing production growth and engineering export growth should exist. We briefly look at the trend in manufacturing growth as also engineering export growth to see if they move in tandem. It may be mentioned that manufacturing has 77.63% weightage in India’s industrial production.
Engineering export growth and manufacturing output growth moved in the same direction in as many as nine out of twelve months in each of the fiscal years 2019-20 and 2020-21. During fiscal 2021-22, engineering export growth and manufacturing growth moved in the same direction in seven out of twelve months while in each of fiscal 2022-23 and 2023-24, as many as 10 out of 12 months saw engineering exports and manufacturing output moved in the same direction.
The first two month of fiscal 2024-25 also saw manufacturing output growth and engineering exports growth moving in the same direction. April 2024 saw engineering exports declined from a growth in Mar 2024 and manufacturing output growth decelerated. The month of May 2024 witnessed just the opposite. Engineering exports bounced back to growth path and manufacturing output growth accelerated. June 2024 however saw both moved in the opposite direction with a higher growth in engineering exports and lower manufacturing growth.
The link between these two may not be established on a monthly basis, but a positive correlation may be seen if medium to long term trend is considered.
| Months/ Year | Engg. Export Growth (%) | Manufacturing Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | -63.05 | -66.6 |
| May 2020 | -22.17 | -37.8 |
| June 2020 | -5.18 | -17.0 |
| July 2020 | 10.56 | -11.4 |
| August 2020 | -7.01 | -7.6 |
| September 2020 | 4.09 | 0.4 |
| October 2020 | -5.01 | 4.5 |
| November 2020 | -8.37 | -1.6 |
| December 2020 | -0.93 | 2.7 |
| January 2021 | 16.66 | -0.9 |
| February 2021 | -4.94 | -3.4 |
| March 2021 | 67.75 | 28.3 |
| April 2021 | 236.85 | 196.0 |
| May 2021 | 50.21 | 32.1 |
| June 2021 | 51.00 | 13.2 |
| July 2021 | 42.57 | 10.5 |
| August 2021 | 58.63 | 11.1 |
| September 2021 | 35.11 | 4.3 |
| October 2021 | 51.76 | 3.3 |
| November 2021 | 37.28 | 0.3 |
| December 2021 | 47.42 | 0.6 |
| January 2022 | 25.63 | 1.9 |
| February 2022 | 35.49 | 0.2 |
| March 2022 | 19.72 | 1.4 |
| April 2022 | 18.30 | 5.6 |
| May 2022 | 11.45 | 20.6 |
| June 2022 | 3.01 | 13.0 |
| July 2022 | -0.03 | 3.2 |
| August 2022 | -12.64 | -0.5 |
| September 2022 | -11.39 | 2.0 |
| October 2022 | -19.68 | -5.8 |
| November 2022 | 0.09 | 6.7 |
| December 2022 | -11.60 | 3.6 |
| January 2023 | -9.76 | 4.0 |
| February 2023 | -9.73 | 5.6 |
| March 2023 | -7.49 | 0.5 |
| April 2023 | -7.27 | 5.5 |
| May 2023 | -4.13 | 6.3 |
| June 2023 | -10.94 | 3.5 |
| July 2023 | -6.65 | 5.0 |
| August 2023 | 7.83 | 9.3 |
| September 2023 | 6.81 | 4.5 |
| October 2023 | 7.20 | N A |
| November 2023 | -3.48 | 1.2 |
| December 2023 | 9.82 | 4.5 |
| January 2024 | 4.21 | 3.6 |
| February 2024 | 15.9 | 5.0 |
| March 2024 | 10.66 | N A |
| April 2024 | -4.49 | 3.9 |
| May 2024 | 7.41 | 4.6 |
| June 2024 | 10.27 | N A |
| July 2024 | 3.66 | 4.6 |
| August 2024 | 4.26 | 1.0 |
| September 2024 | 9.44 | 3.9 |
Source :Department of Commerce and CSO
How did the exchange rate fare during July 2024 and what was the recent trend in Re-Dollar movement? In order to get a clearer picture of the recent Re-Dollar trend, not only we took the exchange rate of July 2024, but also considered monthly average exchange rate of Rupee vis-à-vis the US Dollar for each month of fiscal 2023-24 and 2024-25 till July 2024 as per the latest data published, as mere one-month figure does not reflect any trend. The following two tables clearly depicts the short-term trend:
(Monthly Average Rate of FBIL has been considered)
Source : FBIL
(As per latest data released by FBIL)
| Monthly Average Exchange Rate (1 USD to INR) | Year-on-Year Change (%) | Direction | Month-on-Month Change (%) | Direction | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | 2023-24 | 2024-25 | ||||
| April | 82.02 | 83.41 | 1.69 | Depreciation | 0.49 | Depreciation |
| May | 82.34 | 83.39 | 1.28 | Depreciation | -0.02 | Appreciation |
| June | 82.23 | 83.47 | 1.51 | Depreciation | 0.10 | Depreciation |
| July | 82.15 | 83.59 | 1.75 | Depreciation | 0.14 | Depreciation |
| August | 82.79 | 83.89 | 1.33 | Depreciation | 0.36 | Depreciation |
| September | 83.05 | 83.81 | 0.92 | Depreciation | -0.10 | Depreciation |
| October | 83.24 | 84.02 | 0.94 | Depreciation | 0.25 | Depreciation |
Rupee depreciation vis-à-vis the US Dollar continued in the new fiscal 2024-25 both on a year-on-year basis and on a month-on-month basis. Rupee hit record low of 83.74 during July 2024 on a daily closing basis. Outflow of funds from Indian capital market due to dollar demand by corporates amid global economic and geo political uncertainty, and strengthening of dollar at the same time in the international market due to tightening of US fed policy continued to weigh on several other major currencies including Rupee.
(As per latest data released by FBIL)
| Monthly Average Exchange Rate (1 USD to INR) | Year-on-Year Change (%) | Direction | Month-on-Month Change (%) | Direction | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | 2022-23 | 2023-24 | ||||
| Apr | 76.17 | 82.02 | 7.68 | Depreciation | -0.33 | Appreciation |
| May | 77.32 | 82.34 | 6.49 | Depreciation | 0.39 | Depreciation |
| Jun | 78.04 | 82.23 | 5.37 | Depreciation | -0.13 | Appreciation |
| Jul | 79.60 | 82.15 | 3.20 | Depreciation | -0.10 | Appreciation |
| Aug | 80.23 | 83.04 | 3.50 | Depreciation | 0.78 | Depreciation |
| Sep | 80.23 | 83.04 | 3.50 | Depreciation | 0.30 | Depreciation |
| Oct | 82.34 | 83.24 | 1.09 | Depreciation | 0.24 | Depreciation |
| Nov | 81.81 | 83.30 | 1.82 | Depreciation | 0.07 | Depreciation |
| Dec | 82.46 | 83.28 | 0.99 | Depreciation | -0.02 | Appreciation |
| Jan | 81.90 | 83.12 | 1.49 | Depreciation | -0.19 | Appreciation |
| Feb | 82.61 | 82.96 | 0.42 | Depreciation | -0.19 | Appreciation |
| Mar | 82.29 | 83.00 | 0.86 | Depreciation | 0.05 | Depreciation |
Source : FBIL, EEPC Research
We now present the trend in two-way yearly trade for the engineering sector for the 2024-25 depicted in the table below:
(US$ million)
| Trade Flow | Apr | May | June | July | August | September | October |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Engineering Export | 11034.8 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 11.2 |
| Engineering Import | 10985.6 | 12.9 | 12.0 | 12.5 | 14.1 | 12.7 | 13.4 |
| Trade Balance | -0.4 | -2.9 | -2.6 | -3.5 | -4.7 | -2.9 | -2.2 |
Source : DGCI&S
India’s engineering exports continued its winning streak in the month of July by reaching USD 9.03 billion and recording a growth of 3.7%. In cumulative terms too, engineering exports grew by 4.2%. This result has been in contrast to the trend in overall merchandise exports which in July decline by more than 1% in the y-o-y terms. The performance was made possible by the exporting community despite facing a number of global challenges. It is also noted that the decline in iron and steel exports have been majorly responsible for muted performance of engineering exports from India. In July 2024, exports of iron and steel declined by around 27% and in cumulative terms around 32%. It is also noted that without the iron and steel sector, the growth in engineering exports would come to more than 7% in monthly terms and more than 9% in cumulative terms. The decline in iron and steel was majorly due to stiff competitive pricing from China, geopolitical conflicts in Europe and West Asia and protectionist policies in USA and EU. The situation in overall engineering exports is expected to improve in the future as Global forecasts for GDP growth remain at around 3% for 2024, with the short-term trade outlook being cautiously optimistic. If positive trends persist, global trade in 2024 could reach almost $32 trillion as per the recent UNCTAD update.
The recently announced Union Budget 2024-25 is expected to facilitate MSMEs and export finance significantly. The Budget has also promised rationalized BCDs for key inputs which would give further boost to engineering exports. The major issue that is affecting the exporting community is the rising protectionism across the globe. To maintain the rising trend in engineering exports, the exporting community urges the government to provide support in this matter.
Monthly Trend
Highlights
Product Panels
Impact of Exchange Rate
Conclude