After starting the new fiscal with a 4.49% year-on-year decline in April, Indian engineering exports in May 2024 bounced back to growth and then recorded double-digit growth in June 2024 at 10.27% year-on-year. Cumulative exports growth also accelerated in Apr-Jun 2024-25 with 4.34% growth year-on-year. Share of engineering in India's total merchandise exports increased to 26.68% in June 2024 from 26.19% in May 2024 and 24.76% in April 2024. Cumulative share stood at 25.17%. Growth in engineering exports in June 2024 was attributed to decent rise in shipments of Electrical machinery, Motor vehicles/Cars, Products of iron and steel, Auto components and parts, and Industrial machinery among others. Exports of iron and steel however dropped by 33% year-on-year during Apr-Jun 2024-25 due to tough competition from cheaper Chinese steel, drop in domestic production and increase in domestic demand.
| Trade Flow | Export figures(in $ billion) | Growth (%) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun-2023 | Jun-2024 | Apr-Jun 2023-24 | Apr-Jun 2024-25 | Jun-2024 over Jun-2023 | Apr-Jun 2023-24 over Apr-Jun 2024-25 | |
| Engineering exports | 8.08 | 11.19 | 61.50 | 66.59 | 38.53% | 8.27% |
| Overall merchandise exports | 33.43 | 39.20 | 244.51 | 252.28 | 17.23% | 3.18% |
| Share of engineering (%) | 24.16% | 28.72% | 25.15% | 26.75% | --- | --- |
| Service Exports | 28.05 | 34.02/td> | 191.97 | 215.98 | 21.28% | 12.51% |
Source : Compiled from data by DGCI&S and Quick Estimates published by the Government of India
| Trade Flow | Export in Jun-2023 | Export in Jun-2024 | Growth (%) | Exports in Apr-Jun 2023-24 | Exports in Apr-Jun 2024-25 | Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall engineering exports | 8078.48 | 11190.84 | 38.53 | 61499.68 | 66585.89 | 8.27 |
| Engineering exports excluding Iron and Steel | 7439.92 | 10364.23 | 39.31 | 54629.95 | 61152.46 | 11.94 |
Source : DGCI&S, Govt. of India
The monthly engineering figures for 2024-25 vis-à-vis 2023-24 are shown below as per the latest DGCI&S estimates:
US$ million
| Month | 2023-24 | 2024-25 | Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| April | 8949.36 | 8366.65 | -6.51 |
| May | 9300.62 | 9818 | 5.56 |
| June | 8515.72 | 9193.63 | 7.96 |
| April-June | 26765.71 | 27378.28 | 2.29 |
| July | 8720.3 | 8959.5 | 2.74 |
| August | 9048.65 | 9332.19 | 3.13 |
| September | 8886.54 | 9725.08 | 9.44 |
| July-September | 26655.49 | 28016.78 | 5.11 |
| October | 8078.48 | 11190.84 | 38.53 |
| April-October | 61499.68 | 66585.89 | 8.27 |
Source : DGCIS, Govt. of India
We now look at the export scenario of the top 25 nations that had highest demand for Indian engineering products during the second month of June in the new fiscal 2024-25 over same period last fiscal as well as in cumulative terms during April-June 2024-25 vis-à-vis April-June 2023-24. The data clearly shows that top 25 countries contribute almost 76% of total engineering exports.
(US$ million)
| Countries | Jun-2023 | Jun-2024 | Growth (%) | April-October 2023-24 | April-October 2024-25 | Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U S A | 1435.97 | 1551.56 | 8.05% | 8734.23 | 9278.41 | 6.23% |
| U ARAB EMTS | 448.36 | 672.13 | 49.91% | 2695.4 | 3902.86 | 44.8% |
| SAUDI ARAB | 455.84 | 388.7 | -14.73% | 2208.08 | 2613.55 | 18.36% |
| FRANCE | 186.8 | 384.51 | 105.84% | 1075.47 | 1155.04 | 7.4% |
| GERMANY | 336.18 | 361.21 | 7.44% | 2089.78 | 2087.09 | -0.13% |
| U K | 265.26 | 324.96 | 22.51% | 1815.85 | 1942.28 | 6.96% |
| MEXICO | 214.83 | 300.88 | 40.06% | 1583.54 | 1892.07 | 19.48% |
| SINGAPORE | 348.31 | 288.49 | -17.18% | 1705.92 | 1960.99 | 14.95% |
| SOUTH AFRICA | 202.92 | 277.86 | 36.93% | 1152.07 | 1172.39 | 1.76% |
| CHINA P RP | 260.24 | 264.2 | 1.52% | 1228.6 | 1342.8 | 9.3% |
| JAPAN | 170.09 | 256.99 | 51.09% | 888.43 | 1165 | 31.13% |
| ITALY | 224.78 | 202.48 | -9.92% | 1962.85 | 1487.76 | -24.2% |
| TURKEY | 272.59 | 199.7 | -26.74% | 1453.33 | 1663.02 | 14.43% |
| NEPAL | 175.36 | 198.94 | 13.44% | 1175.27 | 1095.67 | -6.77% |
| KOREA RP | 174.53 | 192.73 | 10.43% | 1400.15 | 1286.41 | -8.12% |
| BRAZIL | 149.02 | 192.58 | 29.23% | 1004.32 | 1097.55 | 9.28% |
| THAILAND | 162.53 | 179.65 | 10.54% | 914.08 | 998.35 | 9.22% |
| BANGLADESH PR | 169.72 | 175.95 | 3.67% | 1136.18 | 1024.23 | -9.85% |
| OMAN | 39.93 | 174.57 | 337.25% | 422.9 | 465.62 | 10.1% |
| NETHERLAND | 163.97 | 151.46 | -7.63% | 1038.29 | 946.29 | -8.86% |
| SPAIN | 93.86 | 150.29 | 60.12% | 787.52 | 694.47 | -11.82% |
| INDONESIA | 285.71 | 142.98 | -49.96% | 1577.59 | 1087.75 | -31.05% |
| BELGIUM | 117.03 | 138.35 | 18.22% | 816.13 | 714.15 | -12.5% |
| VIETNAM SOC REP | 108.12 | 121.55 | 12.42% | 577.96 | 698.32 | 20.82% |
| MALAYSIA | 178.31 | 114.61 | -35.73% | 911.4 | 724.68 | -20.49% |
| Total engineering exports to top 25 countries | 6640.28 | 7407.33 | 11.55% | 40355.33 | 42496.75 | 5.31% |
| Total engineering exports | 8886.54 | 9824.33 | 10.55% | 53421.2 | 56226.95 | 5.25% |
Source : DGCI&S
The following table depicts region wise India’s engineering exports for April-June 2024-25 as opposed to April-June 2023-24.
(US$ million)
| Regions | Jun-2023 | Jun-2024 | Growth (%) | April-October 2023-24 | April-October 2024-25 | Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NORTH AMERICA | 1741.02 | 1949.7 | 11.99% | 10901.79 | 11778.35 | 8.04% |
| EUROPEAN UNION | 1488.12 | 1910.94 | 28.41% | 10081.31 | 9701.71 | -3.77% |
| WANA | 1271.12 | 1614.29 | 27% | 7339.05 | 9108.04 | 24.1% |
| ASEAN | 1146.77 | 907.82 | -20.84% | 6104.7 | 5979.61 | -2.05% |
| SSA( Sub Saharan Africa) | 696.39 | 794.8 | 14.13% | 4037.47 | 3947.24 | -2.23% |
| N E ASIA | 683.21 | 770.41 | 12.76% | 3987.81 | 4277.14 | 7.26% |
| OTHER EUROPE | 572.12 | 556.49 | -2.73% | 3459.47 | 3843.53 | 11.1% |
| SOUTH ASIA | 543.35 | 521.49 | -4.02% | 2999.9 | 3040.34 | 1.35% |
| LATIN AMERICA | 502.66 | 510 | 1.46% | 2927.36 | 2927.19 | -0.01% |
| CIS | 120.11 | 164.24 | 36.74% | 810.96 | 919.09 | 13.33% |
| OCEANIA | 119.47 | 118.61 | -0.72% | 758.73 | 689.03 | -9.19% |
| OTHERS | 2.2 | 5.54 | 151.79% | 12.65 | 15.69 | 23.96% |
Note : *Figures have been rounded off.
Source : DGCI&S **Myanmar has been included in ASEAN and not in South Asia, since ASEAN is a formal economic grouping.
In this section we look at the Engineering Panel wise exports for the month of June 2024 vis-à-vis June 2023 as well as the cumulative exports for April-June 2024-25 vis-à-vis April-June 2023-24.These are indicated in the tables below.
(US$ million)
| Product panels | October-2023 | October-2024 | Growth | April-October 2023-24 | April-October 2024-25 | Growth |
| IRON AND STEEL | 755.3 | 739.61 | -2.08% | 6231.17 | 4606.82 | -26.07% |
| PRODUCTS OF IRON AND STEEL | 849.17 | 827.52 | -2.55% | 4885.05 | 4806.84 | -1.6% |
| Sub Total | 1604.47 | 1567.13 | -2% | 11116.23 | 9413.66 | -15% |
Source : DGCI&S
US$ Million
| Product panels | October-2023 | October-2024 | Growth | April-October 2023-24 | April-October 2024-25 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminium and products made of Aluminium | 565.01 | 526.17 | -6.87% | 3618.22 | 3249.18 | -10.2% |
| Copper and products made of copper | 271.08 | 246.66 | -9.01% | 1187.07 | 1053.17 | -11.28% |
| Lead and products made of Lead | 76.25 | 64.4 | -15.53% | 308.18 | 421.53 | 36.78% |
| Nickel and products made of Nickel | 14.08 | 15.15 | 7.61% | 87.33 | 87.68 | 0.4% |
| Other Non Ferrous Metals and their products | 62.38 | 78.46 | 25.78% | 367.85 | 424.1 | 15.29% |
| Tin and products made of Tin | 1.44 | 2.95 | 105.3% | 7.97 | 11.3 | 41.72% |
| Zinc and products made of zinc | 41.47 | 58 | 39.87% | 390.18 | 347.34 | -10.98% |
| Sub Total | 1031.71 | 991.8 | -4% | 5966.8 | 5594.3 | -6% |
Source : DGCI&S
US$ Million
| Product panels | October-2023 | October-2024 | Growth | April-October 2023-24 | April-October 2024-25 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air condition and Refrigeration Machinery and Parts, Industrial Furnaces, Water heaters and Centrifuges and Compressor | 145.11 | 170.43 | 17.44% | 831.31 | 909.39 | 9.39% |
| IC Engines and Parts | 316.39 | 324.03 | 2.41% | 1852.05 | 1844.39 | -0.41% |
| Industrial Machinery for dairy, agriculture, food processing, textiles, paper, chemicals, etc | 672.49 | 701.88 | 4.37% | 3976.53 | 4066.78 | 2.27% |
| Machine Tools | 58.61 | 61.09 | 4.22% | 365.14 | 392.75 | 7.56% |
| Machinery for ATMs, Injecting Moulding machinery, valves, etc | 202.41 | 240.9 | 19.02% | 1232.08 | 1361.01 | 10.46% |
| Nuclear Reactors, Industrial Boilers and Parts | 65.01 | 89.15 | 37.13% | 368.08 | 406.76 | 10.51% |
| Pumps of all types | 110.14 | 136.23 | 23.68% | 704.58 | 759.17 | 7.75% |
| Sub Total | 1570.18 | 1723.71 | 9.78% | 9329.77 | 9740.25 | 4.4% |
Source : DGCI&S
US$ Million
| Product panels | October-2023 | October-2024 | Growth | April-October 2023-24 | April-October 2024-25 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electric Machinery and Equipment | 1054.87 | 1281.13 | 21.45% | 6203.2 | 6975.32 | 12.45% |
Source : DGCI&S
US$ Million
| Product panels | October-2023 | October-2024 | Growth | April-October 2023-24 | April-October 2024-25 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUTO COMPONENTS/PARTS | 642.025 | 688.684 | 7.27% | 3768.568 | 4089.741 | 8.52% |
| AUTO TYRES AND TUBES | 226.942 | 256.807 | 13.16% | 1366.722 | 1511.515 | 10.59% |
| Motor Vehicle/cars | 762.562 | 788.897 | 3.45% | 4270.925 | 4397.943 | 2.97% |
| Two and Three Wheelers | 203.818 | 266.174 | 30.59% | 1313.806 | 1545.374 | 17.63% |
| Sub Total | 1835.348 | 2000.562 | 9% | 10720.022 | 11544.573 | 7.69% |
Source : DGCI&S
US$ Million
| Product panels | October-2023 | October-2024 | Growth | April-October 2023-24 | April-October 2024-25 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aircrafts, Spacecrafts and Parts | 104.55 | 710.58 | 579.68% | 676.7 | 2970.85 | 2741.64% |
| Ships, Boats and Floating Structures | 467 | 169.72 | -63.66% | 2165.62 | 2171.11 | 364.9% |
| Sub Total | 571.55 | 880.3 | 54.02% | 2842.32 | 5141.96 | 80.91% |
Source : DGCI&S
US$ Million
| Product panels | October-2023 | October-2024 | Growth | April-October 2023-24 | April-October 2024-25 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BICYCLE AND PARTS | 30.53 | 32.67 | 7.02% | 183.02 | 186.37 | 1.83% |
| Hand Tools, Cutting Tools and Implements made of Metals | 80.06 | 89.18 | 11.4% | 464.13 | 503.06 | 8.39% |
| Medical and Scientific Instruments | 190.03 | 257.74 | 35.63% | 1190.48 | 1337.69 | 12.37% |
| OFFICE EQUIPMENTS | 19.43 | 22.26 | 14.59% | 165.96 | 140.73 | -15.2% |
| OTHER CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY | 250.82 | 268.78 | 7.16% | 1444.14 | 1526.76 | 5.72% |
| OTHER MISC. ITEMS | 387.34 | 434.19 | 12.1% | 2325.1 | 2515.18 | 8.18% |
| PRIME MICA AND MICA PRODUCTS | 4.73 | 2.57 | -45.77% | 20.76 | 14.96 | -27.92% |
| Railway Transport and Parts | 23.35 | 22.23 | -4.81% | 148.78 | 153.67 | 3.29% |
| PROJECT GOODS | 0.2 | 0.25 | 27.06% | 1.95 | 1.15 | -41.33% |
| OTHR RUBBER PRODCT EXCPT FOOTW | 134.61 | 142.57 | 5.92% | 821.13 | 875.15 | 6.58% |
Source : DGCI&S
(US$ million)
| Product panels | Top 5 nations | April-October 2023-24 | April-October 2024-25 | Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron and Steel and Products made of Iron and Steel | ||||
| U S A | 1646.41 | 1647.12 | 0% | |
| ITALY | 1091.3 | 715.44 | -34% | |
| U ARAB EMTS | 633.8 | 670.92 | 6% | |
| U K | 387.43 | 445.12 | 15% | |
| NEPAL | 546.61 | 406.81 | -26% | |
| Non-Ferrous Metals and Products made of Non-Ferrous Metals | ||||
| U S A | 724.91 | 710.06 | -2% | |
| KOREA RP | 647.79 | 473.42 | -27% | |
| TURKEY | 121.8 | 408.55 | 235% | |
| SAUDI ARAB | 545.14 | 345.23 | -37% | |
| CHINA P RP | 205.52 | 305.09 | 48% | |
| Industrial Machinery | ||||
| U S A | 1848.45 | 2045 | 11% | |
| GERMANY | 520.42 | 463.09 | -11% | |
| U ARAB EMTS | 379.13 | 448.43 | 18% | |
| CHINA P RP | 360.89 | 424.66 | 18% | |
| THAILAND | 405.5 | 391.72 | -3% | |
| Electrical Machinery | ||||
| U S A | 1223.51 | 1352.57 | 11% | |
| SINGAPORE | 523.28 | 787.66 | 51% | |
| U K | 499.87 | 531.65 | 6% | |
| GERMANY | 366.32 | 430.08 | 17% | |
| KOREA RP | 200.88 | 361.41 | 80% | |
| Automobiles | ||||
| U S A | 1199.15 | 1200.63 | 0% | |
| MEXICO | 794.9 | 991.25 | 25% | |
| SAUDI ARAB | 828.84 | 836.88 | 1% | |
| SOUTH AFRICA | 745.55 | 767.42 | 3% | |
| U ARAB EMTS | 414.58 | 524.69 | 27% | |
| Aircrafts and Spacecraft parts and products | ||||
| U ARAB EMTS | 9.26 | 697.11 | 7429% | |
| SAUDI ARAB | 1.04 | 352.52 | 33656% | |
| FRANCE | 87.7 | 326.27 | 272% | |
| U S A | 227.52 | 214 | -6% | |
| TURKEY | 44.92 | 189.94 | 323% | |
| Ships Boats and Floating products and parts | ||||
| U ARAB EMTS | 485.69 | 737.63 | 52% | |
| SINGAPORE | 606.36 | 591.36 | -2% | |
| U S A | 52.6 | 250.35 | 376% | |
| INDONESIA | 556.18 | 232.68 | -58% | |
| SRI LANKA DSR | 175.32 | 104.62 | -40% | |
| Project Goods | ||||
| KAZAKHSTAN | 0 | 0.35 | N/A | |
| U S A | 0.12 | 0.31 | 148% | |
| BHUTAN | 0.02 | 0.12 | 489% | |
| CONGO P REP | 0 | 0.06 | N/A | |
| NEPAL | 0.03 | 0.05 | 56% | |
| Other Rubber Product Except Footwear | ||||
| U S A | 183.26 | 201.72 | 10% | |
| GERMANY | 60.4 | 56.67 | -6% | |
| U ARAB EMTS | 28.75 | 37.01 | 29% | |
| CHINA P RP | 29.25 | 31.64 | 8% | |
| NETHERLAND | 24.09 | 31.44 | 31% | |
| Other engineering products | ||||
| U S A | 1424.47 | 1454.93 | 2% | |
| GERMANY | 287.88 | 315.63 | 10% | |
| U K | 294.3 | 311.08 | 6% | |
| U ARAB EMTS | 259.23 | 283.45 | 9% | |
| SAUDI ARAB | 203.43 | 212.25 | 4% |
Source : DGCI&S
State wise engineering export performance
The table below indicates the exports from top Indian states. It is evident from the table that almost 93 % of India’s exports is contributed by the listed 12 states. Within this almost 54.7 percent of exports is done by Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat together.
(US$ million)
| Top States | Cumulative Export April-September 2024-25 | Share % | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maharashtra | 11155 | 22.89% | 93.7% share covered by top 12 states |
| Tamil Nadu | 8702.65 | 17.86% | |
| Gujarat | 7497.04 | 15.39% | |
| Karnataka | 3439.74 | 7.06% | |
| Telangana | 3228.76 | 6.63% | |
| Odisha | 2812.3 | 5.77% | |
| Andhra Pradesh | 2542.49 | 5.22% | |
| Uttar Pradesh | 2147.93 | 4.41% | |
| West Bengal | 1682.27 | 3.45% | |
| Madhya Pradesh | 942.22 | 1.93% | |
| Rajasthan | 757.42 | 1.55% | |
| Haryana | 749.12 | 1.54% | |
| Daman & Diu And Dadra & Nagar Haveli | 597.66 | 1.23% | |
| Delhi | 507.99 | 1.04% | |
| Kerala | 427.42 | 0.88% | |
| Chhattisgarh | 414.43 | 0.85% | |
| Jharkhand | 390.97 | 0.8% | |
| Punjab | 328.17 | 0.67% | |
| Goa | 184.65 | 0.38% | |
| Puducherry | 94.63 | 0.19% | |
| Uttarakhand | 42.67 | 0.09% | |
| Bihar | 33.49 | 0.07% | |
| Himachal Pradesh | 12.09 | 0.02% | |
| Tripura | 10.94 | 0.02% | |
| Assam | 9.57 | 0.02% | |
| Chandigarh | 7.61 | 0.02% | |
| Arunachal Pradesh | 1.61 | 0% | |
| Jammu & Kashmir | 1.27 | 0% | |
| Manipur | 0.56 | 0% | |
| Sikkim | 0.53 | 0% | |
| Meghalaya | 0.09 | 0% | |
| Andaman & Nicobar | 0.08 | 0% | |
| Lakshadweep | 0.06 | 0% | |
| Ladakh | 0 | 0% | |
| Mizoram | 0 | 0% | |
| Nagaland | 0 | 0% |
Source : DGCI&S
In terms of region, western region which includes industrial states like Maharashtra and Gujarat is the front runner in terms of exports with 37.7 percent share. Tamil Nadu from the Southern Region has improved its export performance and it ranked second after Maharashtra, while Gujarat and Karnataka ranked third and fourth during April-June 2024-25.
Note : DGCI&S state wise data available till February-2024
Value in US$ million
| Region | Jun-2023($Mn) | Jun-2024($Mn) | Growth % | Apr-Jun 2023-24($Mn) | Apr-Jun 2024-25 ($Mn) | Growth % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WESTERN REGION | 3235.41 | 3477.85 | 7.49% | 20242.16 | 20376.57 | 0.66% |
| SOUTHERN REGION | 3025.34 | 3323.9 | 9.87% | 15987.11 | 18435.75 | 15.32% |
| EASTERN REGION | 893.46 | 906.48 | 1.46% | 6117.73 | 5356.31 | -12.45% |
| NORTHERN REGION | 1764.21 | 588.86 | -66.62% | 11187.05 | 4554.8 | -59.29% |
| Grand Total | 8918.42 | 8297.09 | -6.97% | 53534.05 | 48723.43 | -8.99% |
Engineering sector is an important component of the broader manufacturing sector and the share of engineering production in overall manufacturing output is quite significant. As exports generally come from what is produced within a country, some correlation between manufacturing production growth and engineering export growth should exist. We briefly look at the trend in manufacturing growth as also engineering export growth to see if they move in tandem. It may be mentioned that manufacturing has 77.63% weightage in India’s industrial production.
Engineering export growth and manufacturing output growth moved in the same direction in as many as nine out of twelve months in each of the fiscal years 2019-20 and 2020-21. During fiscal 2021-22, engineering export growth and manufacturing growth moved in the same direction in seven out of twelve months while in each of fiscal 2022-23 and 2023-24, as many as 10 out of 12 months saw engineering exports and manufacturing output moved in the same direction.
The first two month of fiscal 2024-25 also saw manufacturing output growth and engineering exports growth moving in the same direction. April 2024 saw engineering exports declined from a growth in Mar 2024 and manufacturing output growth decelerated. The month of May 2024 witnessed just the opposite. Engineering exports bounced back to growth path and manufacturing output growth accelerated.
The link between these two may not be established on a monthly basis, but a positive correlation may be seen if medium to long term trend is considered.
| Months/ Year | Engg. Export Growth (%) | Manufacturing Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | -63.05 | -66.6 |
| May 2020 | -22.17 | -37.8 |
| June 2020 | -5.18 | -17.0 |
| July 2020 | 10.56 | -11.4 |
| August 2020 | -7.01 | -7.6 |
| September 2020 | 4.09 | 0.4 |
| October 2020 | -5.01 | 4.5 |
| November 2020 | -8.37 | -1.6 |
| December 2020 | -0.93 | 2.7 |
| January 2021 | 16.66 | -0.9 |
| February 2021 | -4.94 | -3.4 |
| March 2021 | 67.75 | 28.3 |
| April 2021 | 236.85 | 196.0 |
| May 2021 | 50.21 | 32.1 |
| June 2021 | 51.00 | 13.2 |
| July 2021 | 42.57 | 10.5 |
| August 2021 | 58.63 | 11.1 |
| September 2021 | 35.11 | 4.3 |
| October 2021 | 51.76 | 3.3 |
| November 2021 | 37.28 | 0.3 |
| December 2021 | 47.42 | 0.6 |
| January 2022 | 25.63 | 1.9 |
| February 2022 | 35.49 | 0.2 |
| March 2022 | 19.72 | 1.4 |
| April 2022 | 18.30 | 5.6 |
| May 2022 | 11.45 | 20.6 |
| June 2022 | 3.01 | 13.0 |
| July 2022 | -0.03 | 3.2 |
| August 2022 | -12.64 | -0.5 |
| September 2022 | -11.39 | 2.0 |
| October 2022 | -19.68 | -5.8 |
| November 2022 | 0.09 | 6.7 |
| December 2022 | -11.60 | 3.6 |
| January 2023 | -9.76 | 4.0 |
| February 2023 | -9.73 | 5.6 |
| March 2023 | -7.49 | 0.5 |
| April 2023 | -7.27 | 5.5 |
| May 2023 | -4.13 | 6.3 |
| June 2023 | -10.94 | 3.5 |
| July 2023 | -6.65 | 5.0 |
| August 2023 | 7.83 | 9.3 |
| September 2023 | 6.81 | 4.5 |
| October 2023 | 7.20 | N A |
| November 2023 | -3.48 | 1.2 |
| December 2023 | 9.82 | 4.5 |
| January 2024 | 4.21 | 3.6 |
| February 2024 | 15.9 | 5.0 |
| March 2024 | 10.66 | N A |
| April 2024 | -4.49 | 3.9 |
| May 2024 | 7.41 | 4.6 |
| June 2024 | 10.27 | N A |
| July 2024 | 3.66 | 4.6 |
| August 2024 | 4.26 | 1.0 |
| September 2024 | 9.44 | 3.9 |
Source :Department of Commerce and CSO
How did the exchange rate fare during June 2024 and what was the recent trend in Re-Dollar movement? In order to get a clearer picture of the recent Re-Dollar trend, not only we took the exchange rate of June 2024, but also considered monthly average exchange rate of Rupee vis-à-vis the US Dollar for each month of fiscal 2023-24 and 2024-25 till June 2024 as per the latest data published, as mere one-month figure does not reflect any trend. The following two tables clearly depicts the short-term trend:
(Monthly Average Rate of FBIL has been considered)
Source : FBIL
(As per latest data released by FBIL)
| Monthly Average Exchange Rate (1 USD to INR) | Year-on-Year Change (%) | Direction | Month-on-Month Change (%) | Direction | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | 2023-24 | 2024-25 | ||||
| April | 82.02 | 83.41 | 1.69 | Depreciation | 0.49 | Depreciation |
| May | 82.34 | 83.39 | 1.28 | Depreciation | -0.02 | Appreciation |
| June | 82.23 | 83.47 | 1.51 | Depreciation | 0.10 | Depreciation |
| July | 82.15 | 83.59 | 1.75 | Depreciation | 0.14 | Depreciation |
| August | 82.79 | 83.89 | 1.33 | Depreciation | 0.36 | Depreciation |
| September | 83.05 | 83.81 | 0.92 | Depreciation | -0.10 | Depreciation |
| October | 83.24 | 84.02 | 0.94 | Depreciation | 0.25 | Depreciation |
Rupee depreciation vis-à-vis the US Dollar continued in the new fiscal 2024-25 both on a year-on-year basis and on a month-on-month basis. Rupee even hit a low of 83.54 during June 2024. Outflow of funds from Indian capital market due to global economic and geo political uncertainty and strengthening of dollar at the same time in the international market following the geo-political tensions and US fed policy continued to weigh on several other major currencies including Rupee.
(As per latest data released by FBIL)
| Monthly Average Exchange Rate (1 USD to INR) | Year-on-Year Change (%) | Direction | Month-on-Month Change (%) | Direction | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | 2022-23 | 2023-24 | ||||
| Apr | 76.17 | 82.02 | 7.68 | Depreciation | -0.33 | Appreciation |
| May | 77.32 | 82.34 | 6.49 | Depreciation | 0.39 | Depreciation |
| Jun | 78.04 | 82.23 | 5.37 | Depreciation | -0.13 | Appreciation |
| Jul | 79.60 | 82.15 | 3.20 | Depreciation | -0.10 | Appreciation |
| Aug | 80.23 | 83.04 | 3.50 | Depreciation | 0.78 | Depreciation |
| Sep | 80.23 | 83.04 | 3.50 | Depreciation | 0.30 | Depreciation |
| Oct | 82.34 | 83.24 | 1.09 | Depreciation | 0.24 | Depreciation |
| Nov | 81.81 | 83.30 | 1.82 | Depreciation | 0.07 | Depreciation |
| Dec | 82.46 | 83.28 | 0.99 | Depreciation | -0.02 | Appreciation |
| Jan | 81.90 | 83.12 | 1.49 | Depreciation | -0.19 | Appreciation |
| Feb | 82.61 | 82.96 | 0.42 | Depreciation | -0.19 | Appreciation |
| Mar | 82.29 | 83.00 | 0.86 | Depreciation | 0.05 | Depreciation |
Source : FBIL, EEPC Research
We now present the trend in two-way yearly trade for the engineering sector for the 2024-25 depicted in the table below:
(US$ million)
| Trade Flow | Apr | May | June | July | August | September | October |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Engineering Export | 11034.8 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 11.2 |
| Engineering Import | 10985.6 | 12.9 | 12.0 | 12.5 | 14.1 | 12.7 | 13.4 |
| Trade Balance | -0.4 | -2.9 | -2.6 | -3.5 | -4.7 | -2.9 | -2.2 |
Source : DGCI&S
India’s engineering exports recorded growth in two consecutive months of the new fiscal 2024-25 despite starting it with a decline. The growth in exports was mainly machinery and automobile sector. However, both ferrous and non-ferrous metal sectors continued to record decline in exports mainly due to tepid global demand and also China offering more competitive prices in the global market. In terms of destinations, our exports increased in WANA region, other Europe, CIS and North America. The FTA with UAE has proved beneficial for the engineering export community and we feel that the ongoing FTA negotiations with GCC once concluded would further favour the community. The global trade has also been growing after a dismal performance last year. The global goods trade in the first quarter of 2024 increased by 1% on a year-on-year basis and is expected to rise further in the coming months. This would be favourable for India exporting community too. It is also important to mention the significant government support that has assisted the community. The recently announced Union Budget of 2024-25 also announced some very favourable measures for the upliftment of the MSMEs in our country. Other moves announced in the budget such as setting up E-Commerce export hubs in PPP model or favourable policies regarding the customs duty would be of immense help to the exporting community. Investment-grade energy audits across 60 traditional industry clusters will enhance operational efficiency and reduce carbon emissions, aligning with the EU's CBAM requirements. The above initiatives will play significant role in bolstering the position of Indian engineering industry.
Monthly Trend
Highlights
Product Panels
Impact of Exchange Rate
Conclude