November 2024

Engineering exports recorded around 3.3% cumulative growth year-on-year during the first five months of fiscal 2023-24

                            
                            Therefore, the FTAs with UAE and Australia can be deemed effective                        

                            In fact, March 2024 recorded positive Y-o-Y growth for almost all regions including North America, EU, WANA, ASEAN, NE ASIA, CIS and South Asia                        

                            The revival in exports to Europe despite the logistics issues including the Red Sea Crisis is 
a positive observation from the present data                        

                            The decline in cumulative engineering exports to our neighbouring countries was mainly due to forex shortages and liquidity crunch                        

                            Decline in exports was also noticed in Latin America and Oceania regions in March 2024                        

                            The decline in Latin America can be attributed to high transportation cost and high tariff structure faced by India due to lack of any comprehensive trade agreement                        

                            Overall although Indian engineering exports failed to achieve the government set target of USD 122.8 billion in FY 2023-24, it performed well given the weak global trade trends, dwindling demand, forex crisis and geopolitical conflicts                        

                            According to the Quick Estimates of Department of Commerce, Government of India, share of engineering exports in India’s total merchandise exports during fiscal 2023-24 increased to 25.01 percent from 23.73 percent in 2022-23.

Monthly Trend

Highlights

Product Panels

Impact of Exchange Rate

Conclude

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November-2024 engineering exports hit peak growth for fiscal 2023-2024

Trade Flow	Export figures(in $ billion)				Growth (%)
	Mar-2023	Mar-2024	Apr-Mar 2022-23	Apr-Mar 2023-24	Mar-2024 over Mar-2023	Apr-Mar 2022-23 over Apr-Mar 2023-24
							Engineering exports	7.82	8.90	69.32	75.47	13.75%	8.87%
							Overall merchandise exports	33.75	32.11	278.26	284.31	-4.83%	2.17%
Share of engineering (%)	23.18%	27.71%	24.91%	26.87%	---	---
Service Exports	28.11	35.67	220.08	251.94	26.89%	14.48%

Source : Compiled from data by DGCI&S and Quick Estimates published by the Government of India

Overall Engineering Exports vs Engineering Exports Excluding Steel Segment (Values in USD Million)

Trade Flow	Export in Mar-2023	Export in Mar-2024	Growth (%)	Exports in Apr-Mar 2022-23	Exports in Apr-Mar 2023-24	Growth (%)
							Overall engineering exports	7822.25	8897.64	13.75	69321.93	75472.31	8.87
							Engineering exports excluding Iron and Steel	7166.14	8133.59	13.50	61796.10	69274.83	12.10

Source : DGCI&S, Govt. of India

Engineering Exports: Monthly Trend

The monthly engineering figures for 2023-24 vis-à-vis 2022-23 are shown below as per the latest DGCI&S estimates:

Table 1: Engineering Exports: Monthly Trend in 2023-24

US$ million

Month	2022-23	2023-24	Growth (%)
April	8949.36	8366.65	-6.51
May	9300.62	9818	5.56
June	8515.72	9193.63	7.96
April-June	26765.71	27378.28	2.29
July	8720.3	8959.5	2.74
August	9048.65	9332.19	3.13
September	8886.54	9725.08	9.44
July-September	26655.49	28016.78	5.11
October	8078.48	11179.62	38.39
November	7822.25	8897.64	13.75
April-November	69321.93	75472.31	8.87

Source : DGCIS, Govt. of India

TOP 25 ENGINEERING EXPORT DESTINATIONS IN April-November 2023-24

We now look at the export scenario of the top 25 nations that had highest demand for Indian engineering products during March 2024 over March 2023 as well as in cumulative terms during April-March 2023-24 vis-à-vis April-March 2022-23. The data clearly shows that top 25 countries contribute almost 76% of total engineering exports.

Table 2: Engineering exports country wise

(US$ million)

Countries	Mar-2023	Mar-2024	Growth (%)	April-November 2022-23	April-November 2023-24	Growth (%)
U S A	1312.78	1417.75	8%	11434.7	12122.64	6.02%
U ARAB EMTS	384.31	776.25	101.99%	3428.01	5316.64	55.09%
SAUDI ARAB	484.73	559.12	15.35%	3090.49	3549.55	14.85%
SINGAPORE	197.95	342.66	73.1%	2087.88	3496.91	67.49%
GERMANY	263.76	312.21	18.37%	2695.66	2763.99	2.53%
U K	238.12	257.9	8.31%	2355.66	2447.11	3.88%
TURKEY	172.85	238.2	37.81%	1855.07	2141.8	15.46%
SOUTH AFRICA	143.02	233.39	63.19%	1485.05	1620.38	9.11%
ITALY	191.87	219.28	14.29%	2347.57	2036.82	-13.24%
MEXICO	300.45	209.03	-30.43%	2131.09	2350.25	10.28%
KOREA RP	234.2	206.77	-11.71%	1804.18	1761.44	-2.37%
CHINA P RP	201.93	187.71	-7.04%	1643.7	1747.51	6.32%
BANGLADESH PR	175.24	178.56	1.9%	1478.29	1374.21	-7.04%
JAPAN	149.05	177.85	19.33%	1179.13	1537.35	30.38%
BRAZIL	156.55	164.01	4.77%	1333.37	1481.19	11.09%
NEPAL	119.01	162.25	36.33%	1457.08	1456.59	-0.03%
NETHERLAND	109.67	150.39	37.13%	1285.31	1243.35	-3.26%
INDONESIA	119.87	147.82	23.31%	1820.37	1413.33	-22.36%
THAILAND	135.91	143.13	5.31%	1216.13	1312.69	7.94%
MALAYSIA	143.11	126.28	-11.76%	1230.96	977.58	-20.58%
FRANCE	146.81	124.64	-15.11%	1391.9	1414.46	1.62%
BELGIUM	86.46	119.82	38.59%	1004.6	957.2	-4.72%
NIGERIA	77.63	106.73	37.48%	691.96	652.35	-5.72%
TANZANIA REP	60.06	105.45	75.58%	541.48	499.57	-7.74%
VIETNAM SOC REP	85.61	103.39	20.76%	769.81	951.65	23.62%
Total engineering exports to top 25 countries	5690.95	6770.59	18.97%	51759.44	56626.56	9.4%
Total engineering exports	7822.25	8897.64	13.75%	69321.93	75472.31	8.87%

Source : DGCI&S

REGION WISE INDIA’S ENGINEERING EXPORTS

The following table depicts region wise India’s engineering exports for April-March 2023-24 as opposed to April-March 2022-23.

Table 3: Region wise engineering exports in April-February 2023-2024 vis-à-vis April-November 2022-2023

(US$ million)

Regions	Mar-2023	Mar-2024	Growth (%)	April-November 2022-23	April-November 2023-24	Growth (%)
NORTH AMERICA	1698.07	1712.01	0.82%	14329.74	15268.05	6.55%
WANA	1386.18	1690.6	21.96%	9825.42	12314.93	25.34%
EUROPEAN UNION	1220.99	1456.93	19.32%	12675.37	12925.8	1.98%
ASEAN	742.33	932.81	25.66%	7669.78	8800.27	14.74%
SSA( Sub Saharan Africa)	590.24	763.75	29.4%	5323.61	5450.59	2.39%
N E ASIA	641.8	634.62	-1.12%	5212.92	5651.74	8.42%
OTHER EUROPE	433.33	535.68	23.62%	4444.98	4874.42	9.66%
SOUTH ASIA	423.78	481.38	13.59%	3907.25	4082.37	4.48%
LATIN AMERICA	421.32	455.34	8.07%	3820.65	3963.55	3.74%
CIS	133.59	131.53	-1.54%	1079.36	1203.18	11.47%
OCEANIA	129.35	97.17	-24.88%	1015.63	909.17	-10.48%
OTHERS	1.27	1.4	10.1%	17.23	23.32	35.38%

Note : *Figures have been rounded off.

Source : DGCI&S **Myanmar has been included in ASEAN and not in South Asia, since ASEAN is a formal economic grouping.

PRODUCT PANEL WISE ENGINEERING EXPORTS

In this section we look at the Engineering Panel wise exports for the month of March 2024 vis-à-vis March 2023 as well as the cumulative exports for April-March 2023-24 vis-à-vis April-March 2022-23. These are indicated in the tables below.

Table 4a. Trend in exports of iron and steel and its products

(US$ million)

Product panels	November-2023	November-2024	Growth	April-November 2022-23	April-November 2023-24	Growth
IRON AND STEEL	656.1	764.05	16.45%	7525.83	6197.48	-17.65%
PRODUCTS OF IRON AND STEEL	712.17	748.99	5.17%	6385.44	6461.59	1.19%
Sub Total	1368.27	1513.04	11%	13911.27	12659.07	-9%

Source : DGCI&S

Table 4b. Trend in exports of Non-Ferrous Metals and Products

US$ Million

Product panels	November-2023	November-2024	Growth	April-November 2022-23	April-November 2023-24	Growth
Aluminium and products made of Aluminium	543.03	556.37	2.46%	4707.38	4439.49	-5.69%
Copper and products made of copper	213.08	171.72	-19.41%	1602.13	1478.79	-7.7%
Lead and products made of Lead	79.27	75.01	-5.37%	460.37	571.05	24.04%
Nickel and products made of Nickel	14.01	11.4	-18.64%	114.65	118.86	3.67%
Other Non Ferrous Metals and their products	56.23	61.66	9.66%	488.63	564.96	15.62%
Tin and products made of Tin	1.52	2.01	32.6%	10.25	14.87	45.11%
Zinc and products made of zinc	52.35	50.85	-2.86%	502.45	476.89	-5.09%
Sub Total	959.48	929.02	-3%	7885.85	7664.92	-3%

Source : DGCI&S

Table 4c. Trend in exports of Industrial Machinery

US$ Million

Product panels	November-2023	November-2024	Growth	April-November 2022-23	April-November 2023-24	Growth
Air condition and Refrigeration Machinery and Parts, Industrial Furnaces, Water heaters and Centrifuges and Compressor	133.4	139.41	4.51%	1092.27	1234.33	13.01%
IC Engines and Parts	239.42	248.65	3.85%	2397.15	2457.98	2.54%
Industrial Machinery for dairy, agriculture, food processing, textiles, paper, chemicals, etc	614.52	565.63	-7.95%	5255.11	5362.18	2.04%
Machine Tools	61.53	58.28	-5.28%	490.95	522.89	6.51%
Machinery for ATMs, Injecting Moulding machinery, valves, etc	188.84	193.25	2.34%	1622.07	1799.08	10.91%
Nuclear Reactors, Industrial Boilers and Parts	52.61	69.88	32.81%	467.37	555.6	18.88%
Pumps of all types	101.32	114.4	12.91%	905.39	1018.32	12.47%
Sub Total	1391.64	1389.5	-0.15%	12230.31	12950.38	5.89%

Source : DGCI&S

Table 4d. Trend in exports of Electrical Machinery and Equipment

US$ Million

Product panels	November-2023	November-2024	Growth	April-November 2022-23	April-November 2023-24	Growth
Electric Machinery and Equipment	885.41	1123.2	26.86%	8091.54	9349.04	15.54%

Source : DGCI&S

Table 4e. Trend in exports of Auto and auto parts

US$ Million

Product panels	November-2023	November-2024	Growth	April-November 2022-23	April-November 2023-24	Growth
AUTO COMPONENTS/PARTS	576.377	576.844	0.08%	4988.289	5384.93	7.95%
AUTO TYRES AND TUBES	221.864	236.992	6.82%	1827.709	2005.573	9.73%
Motor Vehicle/cars	666.977	726.444	8.92%	5597.2	5879.729	5.05%
Two and Three Wheelers	201.204	260.267	29.35%	1738.438	2090.608	20.26%
Sub Total	1666.423	1800.547	8.05%	14151.635	15360.84	8.54%

Source : DGCI&S

Table 4f. Trend in exports of aircraft, spacecraft and parts and ships, boats and floating structures

US$ Million

Product panels	November-2023	November-2024	Growth	April-November 2022-23	April-November 2023-24	Growth
Aircrafts, Spacecrafts and Parts	255.37	780.98	205.82%	1063.47	3873.17	1416.68%
Ships, Boats and Floating Structures	108.82	208.7	91.78%	2347.27	3224.38	2863%
Sub Total	364.19	989.68	171.74%	3410.74	7097.55	108.09%

Source : DGCI&S

Table 4g. Trend in exports of other engineering products

US$ Million

Product panels	November-2023	November-2024	Growth	April-November 2022-23	April-November 2023-24	Growth
BICYCLE AND PARTS	24.38	29.39	20.53%	236.48	253.43	7.17%
Hand Tools, Cutting Tools and Implements made of Metals	68.06	79.17	16.33%	608.84	679.13	11.54%
Medical and Scientific Instruments	193.23	218.9	13.29%	1580.47	1808.62	14.44%
OFFICE EQUIPMENTS	24.37	21.73	-10.83%	221.55	193.46	-12.68%
OTHER CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY	296.88	204.64	-31.07%	1977.03	1986.73	0.49%
OTHER MISC. ITEMS	326.99	357.37	9.29%	3016.08	3318.43	10.02%
PRIME MICA AND MICA PRODUCTS	2.21	2.93	32.93%	25.32	20.45	-19.26%
Railway Transport and Parts	27.81	36.24	30.34%	214.32	234.11	9.23%
PROJECT GOODS	0.09	0.08	-13.43%	2.11	1.61	-23.58%
OTHR RUBBER PRODCT EXCPT FOOTW	130.83	131.75	0.71%	1093.55	1165.34	6.56%

Source : DGCI&S

ENGINEERING PRODUCT PANELS – COUNTRY-WISE ANALYSIS

Table 5: Export of Different Panels

(US$ million)

Product panels	Top 5 nations	April-November 2022-23	April-November 2023-24	Growth (%)
Iron and Steel and Products made of Iron and Steel
	U S A	2126.03	2304.05	8%
	U ARAB EMTS	795.06	947.88	19%
	ITALY	1265.32	937.97	-26%
	U K	486.9	593.44	22%
	NEPAL	649.2	560.72	-14%
Non-Ferrous Metals and Products made of Non-Ferrous Metals
	U S A	971.28	940.05	-3%
	KOREA RP	807.03	647.36	-20%
	TURKEY	133.17	508.72	282%
	SAUDI ARAB	764.53	479.04	-37%
	CHINA P RP	336.1	412.53	23%
Industrial Machinery
	U S A	2409.49	2700.62	12%
	U ARAB EMTS	524.46	622.48	19%
	GERMANY	670.24	589.94	-12%
	CHINA P RP	465.28	559.68	20%
	THAILAND	526.84	494.17	-6%
Electrical Machinery
	U S A	1573.24	1796.86	14%
	SINGAPORE	657.07	1111.23	69%
	U K	649.98	648.31	-0%
	GERMANY	470.87	635.04	35%
	KOREA RP	296.42	490.9	66%
Automobiles
	U S A	1592.55	1564.46	-2%
	MEXICO	1067.69	1218.86	14%
	SAUDI ARAB	1150.24	1126.23	-2%
	SOUTH AFRICA	944.6	1071.65	13%
	U ARAB EMTS	569.17	722.41	27%
Aircrafts and Spacecraft parts and products
	U ARAB EMTS	15.65	1247.01	7869%
	SAUDI ARAB	1.57	571.21	36370%
	FRANCE	124.63	320.99	158%
	TURKEY	62.21	294.09	373%
	CZECH REPUBLIC	3.4	264.08	7659%
Ships Boats and Floating products and parts
	SINGAPORE	638.16	1632.76	156%
	U ARAB EMTS	506.53	660.89	30%
	INDONESIA	556.18	289.5	-48%
	U S A	52.66	251.15	377%
	SRI LANKA DSR	271.46	133.96	-51%
Project Goods
	KAZAKHSTAN	0	0.35	N/A
	U S A	0.16	0.33	105%
	INDONESIA	0.19	0.27	41%
	BHUTAN	0.02	0.14	509%
	KENYA	0.04	0.08	113%
Other Rubber Product Except Footwear
	U S A	242.5	265.58	10%
	GERMANY	76.16	74.16	-3%
	U ARAB EMTS	39.1	49.98	28%
	NETHERLAND	32.62	42.58	31%
	CHINA P RP	41.43	42.19	2%
Other engineering products
	U S A	1858.68	1944.43	5%
	GERMANY	372.33	419.69	13%
	U K	379.24	406.26	7%
	U ARAB EMTS	353.42	385.02	9%
	SAUDI ARAB	346.53	265.66	-23%

Source : DGCI&S

ENGINEERING EXPORTS – STATE-WISE ANALYSIS

State wise engineering export performance

The table below indicates the exports from top Indian states. It is evident from the table that almost 90.4 % of India’s exports is contributed by the listed 12 states. Within this almost 50 percent of exports is done by Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat together.

Table 6: Top state wise engineering export performance - April-September 2024-25

(US$ million)

Top States	Cumulative Export April-September 2024-25	Share %	Remark
Maharashtra	14616.5	22.3%	94.6% share covered by top 12 states
Tamil Nadu	11634.93	17.75%
Gujarat	11014.67	16.81%
Telangana	4866.89	7.43%
Karnataka	4625.73	7.06%
Odisha	3903.34	5.96%
Andhra Pradesh	3215.62	4.91%
Uttar Pradesh	2838.87	4.33%
West Bengal	2251.39	3.44%
Madhya Pradesh	1260.13	1.92%
Rajasthan	917.91	1.4%
Daman & Diu And Dadra & Nagar Haveli	821.82	1.25%
Haryana	692.92	1.06%
Kerala	544.77	0.83%
Chhattisgarh	533.84	0.81%
Jharkhand	529.7	0.81%
Delhi	432.74	0.66%
Punjab	318.01	0.49%
Goa	273.05	0.42%
Puducherry	122.58	0.19%
Bihar	42.6	0.07%
Uttarakhand	32.05	0.05%
Assam	12.85	0.02%
Himachal Pradesh	11.71	0.02%
Tripura	10.94	0.02%
Chandigarh	4.09	0.01%
Arunachal Pradesh	1.61	0%
Jammu & Kashmir	1.21	0%
Manipur	0.65	0%
Sikkim	0.58	0%
Meghalaya	0.13	0%
Andaman & Nicobar	0.08	0%
Lakshadweep	0.06	0%
Ladakh	0	0%
Mizoram	0	0%
Nagaland	0	0%

Source : DGCI&S

Region wise engineering exports

In terms of region, western region which includes industrial states like Maharashtra and Gujarat is the front runner in terms of exports with 34.5 percent share. Tamil Nadu from the Southern Region has improved its export performance and it ranked second after Maharashtra, while Gujarat and Odisha ranked third and fourth during AprilMarch 2023-24 and Haryana came up to fifth position while Karnataka came down to sixth position compared to previous the previous months.

Note : DGCI&S state wise data available till February-2024

Table 7: Region wise exports from India till February-2024

Value in US$ million

Region	Mar-2023($Mn)	Mar-2024($Mn)	Growth %	Apr-Mar 2022-23($Mn)	Apr-Mar 2023-24 ($Mn)	Growth %
SOUTHERN REGION	2394.14	3137.46	31.05%	20739.14	25010.58	20.6%
WESTERN REGION	2956.54	3041.8	2.88%	26342.32	27986.17	6.24%
EASTERN REGION	811.74	923.47	13.76%	7704.86	7287.13	-5.42%
NORTHERN REGION	1685.24	323.96	-80.78%	14689.02	5250.09	-64.26%
Grand Total	7847.66	7426.69	-5.36%	69475.34	65533.97	-5.67%

CORRELATION BETWEEN MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION AND ENGINEERING EXPORTS

Engineering sector is an important component of the broader manufacturing sector and the share of engineering production in overall manufacturing output is quite significant. As exports generally come from what is produced within a country, some correlation between manufacturing production growth and engineering export growth should exist. We briefly looked at the trend in manufacturing growth as also engineering export growth to see if they move in tandem. It may be mentioned that manufacturing has 77.63% weightage in India’s industrial production.

Engineering export growth and manufacturing output growth moved in the same direction in as many as nine out of twelve months in each of the fiscal years 2019-20 and 2020-21. During fiscal 2021-22, engineering export growth and manufacturing growth moved in the same direction in seven out of twelve months while in fiscal 2022-23, as many as 10 out of 12 months saw engineering exports and manufacturing output moved in the same direction.

Ten out of the first ten months of fiscal 2023-24 saw engineering exports growth and manufacturing output growth moved in the same direction barring April 2024. During April, decline in engineering export was slightly higher over Mar 2024 while manufacturing output growth recorded a sharp rise. During May and July 2023, engineering exports witnessed slower decline and manufacturing output managed higher growth over the previous month while in June 2023, engineering exports conceded higher decline and manufacturing output growth slowed down. During August, October, December in 2023 and February 2024, both engineering exports and

manufacturing output recorded higher growth (engineering exports came back to growth path in August and December 2023 from decline in previous month) while in September 2023, November 2023 and January 2024, both of them conceded slower growth or decline.

The link between these two may not be established on a monthly basis, but a positive correlation may be seen if medium to long term trend is considered.

Table 8: Engineering exports growth vis-à-vis manufacturing growth from April 2020

Months/ Year	Engg. Export Growth (%)	Manufacturing Growth (%)
April 2020	-63.05	-66.6
May 2020	-22.17	-37.8
June 2020	-5.18	-17.0
July 2020	10.56	-11.4
August 2020	-7.01	-7.6
September 2020	4.09	0.4
October 2020	-5.01	4.5
November 2020	-8.37	-1.6
December 2020	-0.93	2.7
January 2021	16.66	-0.9
February 2021	-4.94	-3.4
March 2021	67.75	28.3
April 2021	236.85	196.0
May 2021	50.21	32.1
June 2021	51.00	13.2
July 2021	42.57	10.5
August 2021	58.63	11.1
September 2021	35.11	4.3
October 2021	51.76	3.3
November 2021	37.28	0.3
December 2021	47.42	0.6
January 2022	25.63	1.9
February 2022	35.49	0.2
March 2022	19.72	1.4
April 2022	18.30	5.6
May 2022	11.45	20.6
June 2022	3.01	13.0
July 2022	-0.03	3.2
August 2022	-12.64	-0.5
September 2022	-11.39	2.0
October 2022	-19.68	-5.8
November 2022	0.09	6.7
December 2022	-11.60	3.6
January 2023	-9.76	4.0
February 2023	-9.73	5.6
March 2023	-7.49	0.5
April 2023	-7.27	5.5
May 2023	-4.13	6.3
June 2023	-10.94	3.5
July 2023	-6.65	5.0
August 2023	7.83	9.3
September 2023	6.81	4.5
October 2023	7.20	N A
November 2023	-3.48	1.2
December 2023	9.82	4.5
January 2024	4.21	3.6
February 2024	15.9	5.0
March 2024	10.66	N A
April 2024	-4.49	3.9
May 2024	7.41	4.6
June 2024	10.27	N A
July 2024	3.66	4.6
August 2024	4.26	1.0
September 2024	9.44	3.9
October 2024	38.39	4.1

Source :Department of Commerce and CSO

IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE ON INDIA’S EXPORTS

How did the exchange rate fare during March 2024 and what was the recent trend in Re-Dollar movement? In order to get a clearer picture of the recent Re-Dollar trend, not only we took the exchange rate of March 2024, but also considered monthly average exchange rate of Rupee vis-à-vis the US Dollar for each month of fiscal 2023-24 as well as 2022-23 as mere one-month figure does not reflect any trend. The following table clearly depicts the short-term trend:

Fig 3: Trend of Rupee vis-a-vis US dollar from April 2020

(Monthly Average Rate of FBIL has been considered)

Source : FBIL

Table 9: USD-INR monthly average exchange rate in 2024-25 vis-à-vis 2023-24

(As per latest data released by FBIL)

Monthly Average Exchange Rate (1 USD to INR)			Year-on-Year Change (%)	Direction	Month-on-Month Change (%)	Direction
Month	2023-24	2024-25
April	82.02	83.41	1.69	Depreciation	0.49	Depreciation
May	82.34	83.39	1.28	Depreciation	-0.02	Appreciation
June	82.23	83.47	1.51	Depreciation	0.10	Depreciation
July	82.15	83.59	1.75	Depreciation	0.14	Depreciation
August	82.79	83.89	1.33	Depreciation	0.36	Depreciation
September	83.05	83.81	0.92	Depreciation	-0.10	Depreciation
October	83.24	84.02	0.94	Depreciation	0.25	Depreciation
November	83.30	84.36	1.27	Depreciation	0.40	Depreciation

Rupee depreciation vis-à-vis the US Dollar continued on a year-on-year basis and this time in March 2024, Rupee depreciated on a month-on-month basis too after appreciation in previous three months. Outflow of funds from India capital market due to global economic and geo political uncertainty pushed Rupee lower.

Table 10: USD-INR monthly average exchange rate in 2023-24 vis-à-vis 2022-23

(As per latest data released by FBIL)

Monthly Average Exchange Rate (1 USD to INR)			Year-on-Year Change (%)	Direction	Month-on-Month Change (%)	Direction
Month	2022-23	2023-24
Apr	76.17	82.02	7.68	Depreciation	-0.33	Appreciation
May	77.32	82.34	6.49	Depreciation	0.39	Depreciation
Jun	78.04	82.23	5.37	Depreciation	-0.13	Appreciation
Jul	79.60	82.15	3.20	Depreciation	-0.10	Appreciation
Aug	80.23	83.04	3.50	Depreciation	0.78	Depreciation
Sep	80.23	83.04	3.50	Depreciation	0.30	Depreciation
Oct	82.34	83.24	1.09	Depreciation	0.24	Depreciation
Nov	81.81	83.30	1.82	Depreciation	0.07	Depreciation
Dec	82.46	83.28	0.99	Depreciation	-0.02	Appreciation
Jan	81.90	83.12	1.49	Depreciation	-0.19	Appreciation
Feb	82.61	82.96	0.42	Depreciation	-0.19	Appreciation
Mar	82.29	83.00	0.86	Depreciation	0.05	Depreciation

Source : FBIL, EEPC Research

TREND IN ENGINEERING TRADE BALANCE

We now present the trend in two-way yearly trade for the engineering sector for the 2023-24 depicted in the table below:

Table 11: Monthly Trend in Engineering Trade Balance for the current FY

(US$ million)

Trade Flow	Apr	May	June	July	August	September	October	November
Engineering Export	11034.8	10.0	9.4	9.0	9.4	9.8	11.2	8.9
Engineering Import	10985.6	12.9	12.0	12.5	14.1	12.7	13.4	13.0
Trade Balance	-0.4	-2.9	-2.6	-3.5	-4.7	-2.9	-2.2	-4.1

Source : DGCI&S

TO CONCLUDE...

The Indian engineering exports revived in the last few months of FY 2023-24 contributing towards the significant cumulative positive growth for the entire fiscal. Revival of exports was noted in many key regions including North America, EU and North East Asia. Our new FTAs with UAE and Australia has also been effective in boosting our exports to WANA and Oceania regions. It is important to mention here that the global trade is also showing signs of revival. This performance was made even though the Indian exporters faced a number of issues including decline in demand in key geographies, forex crisis in many markets, geopolitical conflicts across the world and logistical issues. In 2023, global merchandise exports declined by 5% - compared to that India’s performance has been good.

The UNCTAD update further mentions that the outlook for 2024 remains positive despite certain uncertainties such as the geopolitical conflicts and logistical issues. The protectionist environmental policies of EU and slow economic revival in China will continue to create uncertainties for the exporters. To create further opportunities it is essential that we increase our value added exports. Also, new FTAs with important partners especially those in Latin America would be key for trade diversification. Overall although worries are there, the exporting community in India and across the world remains hopeful of 2024.